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At the end of last week, the pair reached the Weekly Control Zone 1/2 0.6255-0.6249 and went beyond the average move. This determined the formation of the upward corrective movement. When working in the direction of the growth of the New Zealand dollar, it is necessary to take into account that the downward movement is a medium-term impulse. Thus, the probability of updating the September low is still above 70%.
In the phase of a bearish medium-term impulse, work towards its continuation is always more profitable. The probability of a continuation of the decline is too high, since a reversal requires the formation of a false breakdown at the highest level.
An alternative growth model will only be developed if one of the closest American sessions closes above the Weekly Control Zone 1/2 0.6313-0.6310. This model will be the starting point in the formation of a deep medium-term correction or allow the pair to form a zone of accumulation of the weekly level.
Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market that changes several times a year.
Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by the important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.
Monthly CZ- monthly control zone. The area that reflects the average volatility over the past year.
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