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The euro continued to trade in a very narrow price range after the German business sentiment index came out slightly above forecasts, while the expectations index fell even lower.
This suggests that Germany continues to move towards a technical recession. Yesterday's data on the manufacturing sector proved this again. Now all opponents of a softer monetary policy in Berlin should once again think about whether it makes sense to push.
According to the data, the Ifo business sentiment index in September 2019 increased to 94.6 points against 94.3 points in August. Growth is directly related to a positive assessment of the current situation. But expectations for future prospects have become much worse. Economists had expected the business climate index to reach 94.4 points in September.
As I noted above, the index of company expectations in September fell to 90.8 points, against 91.3 points in August, while economists predicted that the index would rise to 92.0 points.
Regular data on the German economy once again prove that ECB President Mario Draghi's actions to soften the fiscal policy are correct and rational, but whether it will be enough will become clear later on.
As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, it has not changed at all in comparison with the morning forecast. Buyers of risky assets will attempt to return to a resistance of 1.1000, above which the demand for the euro may increase short-term, which will lead to an update of the high of 1.1030. If the trading instrument continues to decline, the key support may be the low of this month in the region of 1.0925.
GBPUSD
The British pound rose after the decision of the Supreme Court of Great Britain. The decision said that Prime Minister Boris Johnson suspended the Parliament unlawfully, and the Speaker of the House of Commons of the British Parliament called on Parliament to begin its work without delay. Such news was received positively, as they fit into a series of defeats for the government led by Boris Johnson. Let me remind you that the prime minister's goal is to exit Great Britain from the EU on October 31, and it doesn't matter if this withdrawal is with or without an agreement. But opponents of this scenario are trying to do everything possible to limit the government's ability to seek Britain's exit from the EU without close cooperation with Parliament.
UK public sector net borrowing growth showed little support for the pound in the morning. Amid problems with economic growth, an increase in borrowing does not look like such a bad scenario. According to the report, net borrowing grew by 6.4 billion pounds in August against 6.9 billion pounds the previous year. Economists have forecast a growth of loans of the public sector in the UK at the level of 6.8 billion pounds
Regarding the technical picture of the GBPUSD pair, the return of pound buyers to a resistance of 1.2460 may provide the market with additional support, which will lead to the resumption of the upward trend, which has been observed since the beginning of this month. However, one piece of news to write off the lack of, in fact, good news on Brexit is also not worth it. Any response from the UK government on the agreement could lead to increased pressure on the trading instrument, and a breakthrough of support in the area of 1.2420 will lead to the demolition of a number of bull stop orders and a larger reduction of the pound in the short term to the lows of 1.2320 and 1.2240.
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