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The currency market continues to balance under a number of uncertainty factors that force investors to avoid activity, which leads to a state of high volatility in the markets and the formation of a kind of "saw", which is characterized by nervousness and sometimes unreasonable multidirectional movements of financial assets.
The growing tension around Brexit, as well as the continuation of hope for a new trade agreement between the US and China, make investors nervous and react to any news, both positive and negative. In addition, in this situation, one should take into account the soft monetary rates of the largest world Central Banks - the Fed, the ECB, the Central Bank of Japan, the Bank of England and the like.
On Tuesday, the attention of market players switched to the publication of reports of American companies, which is viewed through the prism of the influence of US-Chinese negotiations on it. The good results of JPMorgan Chase, UnitedHealth and Johnson & Johnson somewhat eased the concerns of investors that trade confrontation would have negative consequences for company profits. These sentiments led to a decline in interest in protective assets, which was manifested in an increase in the yield of American treasuries, as well as a decrease in gold prices and a weakening of the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc against the US dollar.
With regards to the dynamics of gold, we remain in the opinion that the expected easing of tension around Britain's exit from the EU, as well as the high probability of a new trade agreement between the US and China, and the actual start of a new stimulus program from the Fed, will put pressure on it, then the dynamics of the currency market will remain chaotic, at least until the end of October, when at least something becomes clear regarding Brexit's prospects and new messages appear on the negotiation process between Washington and Beijing.
Forecast of the day:
USD/JPY is trading above a strong support level of 108.45. If the demand of the market for risky assets continues today and the pair holds above this level, it is likely that prices will continue rising to 109.00, and then to 109.75.
Gold on the spot seems to be showing a local reversal in the wake of the possible preservation of demand for risky assets and the prospective resolution of the Brexit crisis in the near future. If the price consolidates below the level of 1476.80, there is a high probability that it will continue to decline to 1473.50, and then to 1461.90.
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