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The obvious desire of the European Central Bank to further mitigate monetary policy, a clear slowdown in economic growth in Europe, as well as the continuing uncertainty around Brexit, put pressure on the single European currency. In addition, certain forecasts are triggered by projections regarding the upcoming meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, which are increasingly insistent that the Federal Reserve System may once again lower the refinancing rate. This time from 2.00% to 1.75%. Moreover, it was on Friday that everyone finally revised their forecasts and began to give a unanimous opinion on the outcome of the upcoming meeting. And as usual, everyone began to play on the contrary. That is, if we are waiting for a negative decision, then it is worth playing for the time being.
Nevertheless, so far all these are just rumors and assumptions. The single European currency has good prospects for growth partly due to this. Let and limited. After all, emotions will gradually fade into the background, and rumors are already embedded in the cost of the single European currency. Moreover, data on consumer lending in Europe are published today, which should show an acceleration in the growth rate from 3.4% to 3.5%. Well, this, anyway, is a sign of growth in consumer activity, which entails the growth of retail sales along with the profits of companies. More importantly, it points to the possibility of rising inflation, which is why the European Central Bank may delay the reduction of the refinancing rate.
Consumer lending growth (Europe):
The EUR/USD pair still did not stop and managed to hurt the key level of 1.1080, for a given period of time, where it immediately felt a foothold and entered the pullback phase. In fact, we have a recovery process from the previously worked out mirror level of 1.1180, where the quote felt resistance at the inertial movement phase and as a fact turned around. In terms of a general review of the trading chart, we no longer see just a stop, but the incipient recovery process with respect to the inertial move, but a full conversation about the return of short positions to the market will only happen after the price has consolidated below 1.1160.
It is likely to assume that having a support in the face of 1.1180 can change the status to a range level, where initially we will see a rebound in the direction of 1,1100-1,1110. After that, it is worthwhile to carefully analyze the behavior of market participants and consolidation points relative to the values of 1.1080/1.1110.
We concretize all of the above into trading signals:
- We consider long positions in the form of a local rebound towards 1.1100-1.1110. A deeper move is considered after consolidating the price higher than 1.1110.
- We consider short positions only in terms of a full-fledged move, thereby consolidating is advised when lower than 1.1160.
From the point of view of a comprehensive indicator analysis, we see that in terms of minute intervals there is a rebound, which signals purchases. Hours, working in the recovery phase, signaling sales. The medium-term outlook [daytime periods] invariably signals an upward trend due to an earlier inertial course.
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