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On Wednesday, the key environmental event is the publication of US inflation data in October. Forecasts are neutral, price increases are not expected, which is consistent with the statement by J. Powell about the limited potential for inflation growth. Today, Powell will speak to the Joint Economic Committee of Congress, any deviation from the rhetoric from the last Fed meeting can significantly increase volatility.
US stock exchanges closed in positive territory, which can be considered a sign of the resumption of positive sentiment and increased demand for risk, but the Asia-Pacific countries showed negative dynamics at night and in the morning amid protests in Hong Kong. On Wednesday, the US dollar remains the market's favorite, but the momentum has weakened significantly, and the movement until the release of inflation data will be weak both in the raw materials market and in major currency pairs.
EUR/USD
ZEW economic sentiment indicator rose significantly in November, rising to -2.1p from -20.7p a month earlier. The sharp increase in the indicator is explained by expectations of positive changes in world trade and a decrease in uncertainty. The chances of concluding an agreement between the UK and the EU have increased markedly while tariffs for cars from Europe may remain at current levels. Thus, there was hope for a trade deal between the United States and China again.
In addition, inflationary expectations and short-term interest rates are rising in the eurozone. Everything goes to the point that the peak of the crisis, which was reflected primarily in the manufacturing sector of the eurozone, has been passed, and these changes in investor sentiment will contribute to increased demand for the euro.
At the same time, a strong bearish factor remains the start of the ECB's asset buyback program, but at the moment, it is unclear whether Lagarde is ready to change the ECB's policy or be careful. The second option is more likely, and therefore, the pressure on the euro will be insignificant due to the low probability of additional steps to stimulate in the near future.
In general, as of the morning of November 13, the euro remains slightly pressured after the breakdown of key support 1.1075. Thus, technically, the trend remains downward. Now, when trying to grow, it is more logical to sell in the resistance area of 1.1035 / 40, a decline to 1.0990 and possibly continue further to 1.0975.
GBP/USD
In the UK, an impressive amount of macroeconomic data is published this week. The data are weak and are putting additional pressure on the pound as it approaches general elections.
On the other hand, the trade balance in September fell to -3.36 billion pounds, while the deficit of the commodity balance reached -12541 billion. This is not surprising against the backdrop of a decline in industrial production, which is still below the levels of the pre-crisis 2007.
The decline in production leads to a slowdown in GDP growth, an increase of 3 square meters which preliminarily amounted to 0.3%, that is worse than forecasts, while NIESR believes that the three-month growth in October will be only 0.1%.
The labor market report came out worse than expected, but in absolute terms, the results are still strong. As of September, the unemployment rate fell to 3.8%. The average wage growth rate of 3.6%, which gives reason to count on rising inflation. Moreover, a report on consumer prices will be published today, while data on retail and manufacturing prices will also be released.
As a result, the pound continues to stay in the range and refuses to decline, relying on political forecasts according to which Boris Johnson will be able to get a majority in the future parliament and complete Brexit in accordance with the plans of the conservatives. As practice shows, the pound usually weakens 2-3 weeks before the election. In addition, the Bank of England is gradually approaching the threshold at which the policy of easing monetary policy can begin. Over the past few decades, there have been no exceptions to the Bank of England not starting the easing cycle after the Fed, and thus, the chances of the pound to fall in the coming weeks look more convincing. Testing is likely at the support area which is 1.2770 / 2800, but going lower is still in question as long as election forecasts remain in favor of the Tories.
If polls show a strengthening of Boris Johnson's position, then the pound may resume its growth in order to test the resistance of 1.2945 / 50.
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