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In general, the data on labor market were more likely negative although the unemployment rate in the UK fell from 3.9% to 3.8%. Indeed, the growth rate of average wages excluding premiums slowed down from 3.8% to 3.6%, and taking into account bonuses, that is, taking into account overtime, from 3.7% to 3.6%. Moreover, the number of applications for unemployment benefits has increased from 13.5 thousand to 33.0 thousand, which is why the decline in unemployment looks somewhat strange. Thus, it is possible that in the future, and quite close, they will be reviewed for the worse. Nevertheless, it was the decline in unemployment that kept the pound from falling, although it pretty much left side to side and in fact, yesterday was limited to that.
Today will be extremely busy, and inflation data in Germany has already been released, showing that it has remained at the same level, 1.1%. In addition, in Europe will still be published data on industrial production, which so far has been reduced by 2.8%. In fact, all forecasts indicate that the situation in industry should improve slightly and the decline will slow to 2.3%. Nevertheless, the positive is visible only in the direction and striving for positive values. The recession of industry itself will not go anywhere. At the same time, the decline in industry has already been going on for ten consecutive months.
Industrial Production (Europe):
However, this will be the most uninteresting data for today. The data on inflation in the UK is much more interesting, especially since it can drop from 1.7% to 1.6%. It is clear that investors do not like the decline in inflation. However, this time everyone will immediately recall that during the last meeting of the Board of the Bank of England two out of nine votes were cast just for lowering the refinancing rate. And given this unpleasant fact, the decrease in inflation portends an unpleasant possibility of lowering the Bank of England refinancing rate before the end of this year. That is, before Brexit. And this is not included in the plans of investors who hope that such a step will be taken only after the final withdrawal of Great Britain from the European Union. So don't be scared if the pound begins to rapidly lose its position immediately after the publication of inflation data.
Inflation (UK):
Of course, all these data are extremely interesting, but today, they will only warm up the audience before the main performance. Namely, before the publication of inflation data in the United States. Moreover, there are well-grounded suspicions that inflation in the United States, as well as in the former metropolis, will drop from 1.7% to 1.6%. Now, investors are already impressed by the shocking pace of easing the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve System, and if inflation continues to decline, one won't get rid of the thought that Jerome Powell and the company will pull this trick once again before the end of the year. Due to this, if inflation in the United States does decline, investors will completely forget about the depressing state of European industry and British prices.
Inflation (United States):
Thus, it is worth considering the possibility of growth of the single European currency to 1.1050, with the possibility of subsequent growth.
The pound may well initially decline to 1.2825, and then grow towards 1.2875 by the evening.
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