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It seems that inflation in the United States, which went from 1.7% to 1.8%, was a complete surprise to everyone. Indeed, in the best case, they predicted its immutability, and morally everyone was ready for it to decline. However, inflation presented a pleasant surprise. That's just what to do with it, no one figured it out. As a result, the dollar certainly strengthened, but so insignificantly that it's not even worth talking about. In fairness, it is worth noting that European data turned out to be significantly better than forecasts, since the rate of decline in industrial production slowed down from -2.8% to -1.7%. While it was expected that the decline will be -2.3%. So we can say that yesterday there were enough reasons for optimism on both sides of the Atlantic. Another thing is that no one was ready for such a development of events.
A rather busy day awaits us today, and the first thing you need to pay attention to is the second estimate of European GDP for the third quarter of this year. Another thing is that there is practically no doubt that it will coincide with the first estimate, which showed a slowdown in economic growth from 1.2% to 1.1%. So, in theory, the market will not react to this data. However, one should not exclude the possibility that the data will turn out to be somewhat different from what is predicted. Indeed, the bewilderment of market participants cannot last forever, so the discrepancy between actual and forecast data, in this case, will become an occasion for activity on the market.
European GDP:
However, producer prices in the United States are much more interesting. Especially in light of yesterday's inflation data. So far, forecasts remain unchanged, and producer prices are expected to slow down from 1.4% to 0.9%. However, these forecasts were also based on the fact that inflation, at best, will remain unchanged, and it has grown. So it is extremely likely that the growth rate of producer prices, even if they do not grow, but at least remain unchanged. The second day in a row, good news on inflation, will lead bidders out of confusion, and they will finally begin to purchase the dollar.
Manufacturer Prices (United States):
The EUR/USD pair very smoothly and without unnecessary noise consolidated at the psychological level of 1.1000, drawing a low amplitude. In fact, we saw an obvious retention of short positions, where the quote in the form of translational movement is trying to consolidate below the price value of 1.1000. The characteristic restraint also fuels the interest of speculators, which can result in a kind of acceleration.
In terms of a general review of the trading chart, we see a characteristic recovery relative to an elongated correction, where more than half of the previously formed move has already been played.
It is likely to assume that a considerable number of short positions accumulated during the deceleration phase, which, in the event of a breakdown of the psychological level of 1.1000, could lead to the market. Therefore, it's worthwhile to carefully analyze the behavior of the quote and the desire to consolidate it below the level of 1.1000, where new horizons for the decline will open.
Concretizing all of the above into trading signals:
- Long positions, we consider in case of a change in market interest and price consolidation higher than 1.1020.
- Short positions, we consider in case of holding downward interest and consolidation lower than 1.0990.
From the point of view of a comprehensive indicator analysis, we see that the indicators of technical instruments unanimously took the downside, giving a sell signal.
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