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The main events for the month of December will occur this week:
1. The Fed meeting, December 11. At this meeting, the Fed may again lower the rate by 0.25% and this will give an incentive to the growth of EURUSD. The following are the arguments for raising the rate: Trump insists on this;
The US economy is clearly slowing growth, despite a very strong employment report for November where other indicators indicate a slowdown.
In addition, negotiations with China on trade are likely to end without result.
2. The ECB, December 12. The first meeting on rates under the leadership of the new head of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. The question of whether the ECB is going to raise the deposit rate for banks from the current anomalous level minus 0.4% remains.
If the ECB makes such a hint, there will be a strong growth of the euro.
3. Elections in Britain, December 12. The most likely scenario is a strong victory for the Conservatives and Johnson. In this case, Brexit will finally take place on January 31, under Johnson's terms. This is also a strong result for the pound and the euro.
So, the euro is most likely to grow following the results of the new week.
We keep purchases from 1.1035.
Possible purchases with a break of 1.1115 and up.
P.S. The meeting of the Norman four in Paris.
The most important meeting for Russia and Ukraine.
In recent months, in my opinion, the Kremlin has undergone a major revision of its attitude to the issue of Donbass. If the status of Donbass, previously torn between Russia and Ukraine, was considered an advantage for the Kremlin, since it allowed pressure on Ukraine, now it has come to understand that the Donbass is a trap for Moscow, and not for Kiev. And, it was decided to try to shove the Donbass back to Ukraine. For this reason, strong progress in the settlement in the Donbass is very likely in Paris, all the more so since the new president of Ukraine, Zelensky has his main goal of reconciliation in the Donbass.
Meanwhile, a good reason for the growth of the Russian market and the strengthening of the ruble came as a positive outlook from the meeting today, December 9, in Paris.
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