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Hello, dear colleagues!
If we talk about the external background, the trade negotiations between the US and China are still uncertain, which does not contribute to the activity of market participants. Also, investors are waiting for the outcome of the two-day meeting of the Open Market Committee (FOMC). Today at 20:00 (London time), the Fed will announce its decision on the refinancing rate and will publish updated economic forecasts. It is expected that the Fed will keep the rate at the same level. This means that the main reaction of investors will be determined by the updated forecasts for the US economy. However, I would like to note that the Fed meeting will be extended and will be held in full. It is understood that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will hold a press conference at 20:30 (London time). I believe that if rates are maintained, the main reaction of market participants will depend on the rhetoric of the head of the Federal Reserve.
Before the Fed's decision at 14:30 (London time), data on the US consumer price index will be released. A very significant indicator that affects inflation in the United States.
Given the above events, December 11 will be the most important day of the week, and investors will have drivers to increase their activity.
As for yesterday's statistics from the eurozone, the positive index of economic sentiment from German investors from ZEW slightly affected the strengthening of the euro against the US currency.
The daily chart of EUR/USD currency pair
We see that as a result of yesterday's growth, the trades closed at 1.093, which is above the upper limit of the Ichimoku indicator cloud and above the exponential moving average, as well as above the strong and vicious level of 1.1080.
However, it is too early for the euro to fall into euphoria and celebrate success. There are many technical barriers above, among which the nearest will now be the price zone of 1.1110-1.1165. And the main events for the euro/dollar currency pair are still ahead. After today, tomorrow the European Central Bank (ECB) will pick up the baton, which will announce its decision on the basic interest rate, and a little later, the new ECB President Christine Lagarde will hold a press conference.
If the goals at the top are clear and visible, then in the case of a downward scenario, the euro/dollar will fall to 1.1073, 1.1060, 1.1048 and 1.1029.
If for trading ideas, then yesterday's recommendation to sell after rising to the area of 1.1080-1.1110 was correct. After reaching the highs at 1.1097, the pair turned to decline and at the time of completion of the article, it is trading near the same level of 1.1080. Today, it is difficult to give any specific recommendations. As an option, the technique of selling looks good from the area of 1.1110-1.1160 and buying with a decrease in the area of 1.1070-1.1030.
Successful trading!
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