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While many investors call the yen a mystery currency because of its ability to ignore internal macro statistics and show increased sensitivity to external factors, fans of the Japanese yen enjoy its ability to realize the advances made. For the fourth year in a row, the "bears" on USD / JPY have started briskly. And if in 2019 they made a splash in the form of a flash accident, when in a few minutes the yen strengthened against major world currencies by 4-8%, then in 2020 geopolitics will play on the side of the currency unit of the Land of the Rising Sun.
It would seem that nothing can disrupt the peaceful course of events in the financial markets. Investors were preparing to sign a trade agreement between the US and China, which, according to Donald Trump, should be held on January 15 at the White House. Unmanned American attacks on Iran, which claimed the life of an important local military commander, became a real thunder in the blue and Tehran has promised vengeance. Iraq wants to withdraw American troops from the country, and North Korea is not going to fulfill its promises to end the missile tests. The world is extremely fragile, and after a trade war, real hostilities may come. Where is it before the increase in global risk appetite ?!
While Bloomberg experts used factors such as increased uncertainty in the United States due to the presidential election and an increased likelihood of a correction in the S&P 500 in their forecasts for the yen for 2020. They also added geopolitics in January.
Forecasts on currencies G10:
Rising international risks and a rich economic calendar for the States allow the yen to claim the role of the most interesting currency of the week by January 10. "Japanese" is sensitive to events taking place in the USA, as they lead to fluctuations in the American stock and bond markets, which, in turn, are the main place of capital investment for residents of the Land of the Rising Sun. Japanese corporations hold more than $ 3 trillion in foreign securities, while a deterioration in global risk appetite leads to the repatriation of money to their homeland and to a drop in USD / JPY quotes.
From the point of view of fundamental analysis, if December employment in the United States does not reach 160 thousand as forecasted by Reuters experts, the S&P 500 and the yield of US treasury bonds risks in going down, which will favorably affect the yen's position. On the contrary, if the labor market continues to demonstrate its strength, which the Fed said in the minutes of the last meeting, that the bulls will start a counterattack on the dollar.
Technically, on the daily USD / JPY chart, the Double Top pattern has clearly worked out. A breakthrough of diagonal support in the form of the lower border of the upward trading channel allowed sellers to develop a correction to the medium-term "bullish" trend. To continue the downside campaign, the Bears must storm the Pivot level 107.65. If it remains in the hands of its opponents, the likelihood of the pair consolidating in the range of 107.65 to 109.1 is indeed high.
USD / JPY daily chart:
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