15.01.202009:27 Forex Analysis & Reviews: US-China agreement may turn out to be false and markets are disappointed (we expect EUR/USD pair to grow while we buy or sell gold after breaking through important levels)

Things are great again. It seems that a new trade US-Chinese agreement on the "first phase" should already be signed today by the first persons of the countries. And as if everything is fine, but it turns out that not everything is so simple.

News leaked to the press that the States are not going to change their new tariff policy despite the conclusion of the treaty, which consists in raising customs duties on Chinese imports and which was adopted by President D. Trump before the presidential election in the country. In fact, we can say that they can continue for another year with high probability until the beginning of 2021. However, it is generally unclear what he actually gives. We can only say that they can become a prologue to wider agreements in the future, and that's all. But then, it is not also clear why there is all this fuss and somersaults around the so-called "first phase".

In our opinion, this is due to the fact that America probably felt Beijing's "weakness" and decided to finally squeeze it at the next stage of large-scale negotiations. Assessing the prospects of the negotiation process in this way, we believe that the formal signing that will take place today is unlikely to have a noticeable effect on the markets, since the fact of signing is already taken into account in prices, and the leaking insider about freezing tariffs can, on the contrary, force investors to stock markets begin to take profits, which may serve as the basis for the beginning of a deep, but local correction.

Given this, we believe that the dollar will remain under pressure in the currency exchange market, and what more is that the data on consumer inflation published in the United States on Tuesday turned out to be lower than the forecast on a monthly basis. According to the presented values, the basic consumer price index decreased in growth to 0.1%, although it was expected to increase at the level of 0.2%. Of course, there is also positive news - this is the preservation of inflationary pressure on an annualized basis at around 2.3% and the general increase in consumer prices for the year by 2.3% against 2.1%, but at the same time, the monthly value of the indicator also declined in growth which is to 0.2% from 0.3%.

In general, the data presented indicate that the Fed will not change its monetary rate in the near foreseeable future, which means that the dynamics of the dollar will depend entirely on general market sentiment, that is fully influenced by the events of trade wars between the States and their trading partners. Moreover, there are also some subsided geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which, unfortunately, will make itself felt for a considerable period of time.

Forecast of the day:

EUR/USD remains in a short-term upward trend. We believe that the factor of signing a trade agreement between the United States and China will push it up to 1.1240. Thus, breaking through the price level of 1.1145 will provide a signal for purchases.

Spot gold is consolidating between the levels of 1539.40 and 1553.65. It can both grow and decline against the background of the signing of a trade agreement. We believe that it is possible to buy gold after breaking through the price level of 1539.40 with a likely target of 1577.00. At the same time, a decline in the price below the level of 1553.65 may serve as the basis for its decline to 1518.55.