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Since the end of November 2019, the EUR/USD pair has been moving along the upward channel. It reached its upper limit at the level of 1.1240 on December 31, but then changed direction and broke through the lower boundary of the channel at the level of 1.1125 on January 8.
Buyers tried to return EUR/USD to the channel last week, until Thursday, January 16, but then their strength weakened and the pair plummeted. Even the signing of the "first phase" of the trade agreement by Washington and Beijing failed to help the bulls. This event caused a slight decrease in the US currency and the growth of EUR/USD, which soon stopped and was facilitated by the publication of the minutes from the last European Central Bank meeting as well as data on US retail sales for December. In the first case, the leadership of the ECB announced that it was not going to raise the key interest rate until inflation in the eurozone reached a target of 2%. Moreover, the regulator did not exclude the possibility of a rate transition from the current zero level to the negative zone. As for the second factor, last month, retail sales in the United States grew by 0.3% in monthly terms. As you know, consumer spending accounts for more than 65% of US GDP. As a result, the euro began to lose ground against the dollar, and the main currency pair completed the trading week at 1.1090.
Scotiabank currency strategists believe that a fall in the EUR/USD rate below the psychological mark of 1.1100 offers a good opportunity to open long positions.
They maintain an optimistic view of the single European currency in light of the recent improvement in economic indicators in the eurozone.
"Now the ECB is likely to refrain from signaling that it sees the possibility of additional stimulus in the future," experts said.
"The fall of EUR/USD below 1.1100 slowed down near the level of 1.1097, which corresponds to the value of the 50-day moving average. The strong support area is between 1.1065 and 1.1090. At the same time, the short-term growth outlook is likely to be limited to 1.1145," they added.
Meanwhile, UBS experts see a clear bias towards the fall of EUR/USD in the near future below 1.10.
"We expect to see the strengthening of the US currency amid the fact that markets will overestimate the probability of lower interest rates in the United States. As global economic growth rates recover, the risk of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts decreases. We think that the euro will return to growth in the long run, so we believe that levels below 1.10 in the EUR/USD pair will offer a good buying opportunity," analysts said.
They advise traders to open long positions when the pair falls to 1.09 in order to grow to 1.12.
"In the longer term, the signing of an agreement between the United States and China on an interim deal is a positive factor for the euro, as this will reduce uncertainty about world trade, which will lead to increased European exports," UBS said.
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