03.02.202009:42 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot forecast for EUR/USD on 02/03/2020 and trading recommendation

In fact, the dollar began to lose ground on all fronts from the very opening of the American session on Friday. At the same time, no serious macroeconomic data was released. More precisely, they came out, but the movement occurred exactly between the publications of European and American statistics. But the fact is that politics has intervened in the conflicting life of the market, which is already being shaken by speculators who use mass media hysteria about the coronavirus. More precisely, the next blockbuster series is about the impeachment of Donald Trump. The Senate planned to complete this case in January, but did not have time, so the vote on this issue was postponed to February. It was on Friday that it became known that the vote was scheduled for February 5. However, there is some intrigue about the probability that Donald Trump will be the first President of the United States to be dismissed and then put on trial tends to zero especially since this has never happened before, and the Senate has never voted on such a question. So the nerves of investors, who are already shaken by information noise, simply have passed. So we saw a full-scale weakening of the dollar on all fronts. Well, this tells us that the dollar will quickly return back after the vote.

At the same time, the single European currency really had a reason for growth. Although the first estimate of GDP for the fourth quarter showed a slowdown in economic growth from 1.2% to 1.0%, preliminary data on inflation still showed its growth from 1.3% to 1.4%. Moreover, combined with the continued decline in unemployment, rising inflation clearly suggests that the European Central Bank will clearly not further soften the parameters of its monetary policy. But strangely enough, the market did not react to this data at all.

Inflation (Europe):

American statistics turned out to be worse than forecasts, but the market did not react to it either, since everything had happened before. So, personal income increased by 0.2%, and not by 0.4%, as predicted. In addition, personal expenses increased by 0.3% instead of 0.5%. In general, of course, growth is visible, but not significant, which means that the potential for further growth in consumer activity is significantly limited.

Personal Income (United States):

Although the weakening of the dollar is clearly speculative, we are unlikely to see its strengthening before the Senate vote. Moreover, there is no reason for this at least today. So, the final data on the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of the euro area should confirm the fact of its growth from 46.3 to 47.8.

Manufacturing Business Activity Index (Europe):

However, in the United States, similar data should confirm the fact of a decrease in the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector from 52.4 to 51.7. So for good, there is simply no reason to strengthen the dollar.

Manufacturing Business Activity Index (United States):

From the point of view of technical analysis, we see a full-fledged move from the psychological level of 1.1000, where the quote managed to return to the previous level of 1.1080. In fact, this is the sixth development of the psychological level in five months, holding back sellers in the recovery phase.

In terms of a general review of the trading chart, we see that the downward movement set in the first days of January received the first support, forming the reverse movement. In turn, an oblong correction is invariably maintained in the market, where the current measure indicates the possible emergence of a medium-term lateral course.

It is likely to be assumed that the focus will be on the range of 1.1065 / 1.1100, which pursues the level of 1.1080. Regarding these frames, we expect temporary fluctuations in the form of stagnation, where it is worthwhile to carefully analyze the price fixing points, since depending on the given boundaries, local movement will be clear.

We concretize all of the above into trading signals:

- We consider long positions in case of price fixing higher than 1.1110.

- We consider short positions in case of price fixing lower than 1.1060.

From the point of view of a complex indicator analysis, we see that the minute intervals are looped over the existing stagnation, producing a multi-directional signal. At the same time, intraday interest was built due to the recent surge, having a buy signal while medium-term indicators invariably sell signal, but there are prerequisites for a change in interest.