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The single European currency stubbornly continues to strive for decline, since it was just that on the completely empty macroeconomic calendar. In addition, it did not grow before the publication of data on open vacancies in the United States and even made uncertain attempts to move down. This was especially noticeable shortly before the publication of the JOLTS data, forecasts for which were quite optimistic.
However, all these forecasts did not happen, and in fact the number of open vacancies declined from 6.8 million to 6.4 million, although they expected growth to 7.0 million. Moreover, this is the worst indicator in the last two years. All this means that rising unemployment is not an accidental and temporary phenomenon. Now, on the contrary, there is a risk of further growth in unemployment. But strangely enough, this did not lead to a serious growth of the single European currency. In fact, it did not change at all for the day and remained in the same positions.
Number of Job Openings JOLTS (United States):
Nevertheless, the pessimistic mood of the single European currency is quite understandable, since there is nothing to rejoice about. Moreover, data on industrial production will be published today, which should show a deepening recession from -1.5% to -2.8%. And if these forecasts are confirmed, it will mean that the decline in industrial production in Europe has been going on for fourteen consecutive months. However, there is no way out of this situation, as recent data on the largest countries in the euro area showed only a deterioration in the situation in industry.
Industrial Production (Europe):
From the point of view of technical analysis, we see that market participants adhere to a downward mood, which was set back in mid-December. In fact, the reduction process led us to the base point of the oblong correction [1.0879], where only 12 points remained to the minimum of last year.
In terms of a general review of the trading chart, we see that the recovery process regarding the elongated correction [1.0879 ---> 1.1239] is considered developed, where a signal to update the lows can be received in a short time.
It is likely to assume that the touch of 1.0879 will occur today, where local slippage is possible below, towards 1.0850. After which, there will be a gradual consolidation process, where a pullback above the level of 1.0880 and subsequent flat is not ruled out.
We concretize all of the above into trading signals:
- We consider long positions in case of a rebound from the range of 1.0850 / 1.0880.
- We consider short positions in terms of local retention in the direction of 1.0850.
From the point of view of a comprehensive indicator analysis, we see that technical tools adhere to the general background of the market, signaling sales relative to all the main time periods.
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