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GBP/USD – 1H.
Hello, traders! According to the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair performed an increase to the corrective level of 76.4% (1.3017), rebounding from it and falling to the Fibo level of 61.8% (1.2985). Fixing the pair's rate below this level will work in favor of continuing the fall of the British currency in the direction of the corrective level of 50.0% (1.2958) and the upward trend line, which keeps the "bullish" mood of traders on the lowest chart. Closing the quotes of the pound/dollar pair below the trend line will change the mood to "bearish" and increase the likelihood of a renewed fall in the pound.
GBP/USD – 4H.
As seen on the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair continued to grow during February 25, which led to the cancellation of all trading signals and ideas for sale. Bear traders have shown that they do not currently own the market and do not show any initiative. Thus, the downward trend corridor has been rebuilt, and now its angle of inclination is much smaller than it was before. Technically, the "bearish" mood remains on this chart, since the corridor still has a downward slope. Near its upper line, I expect to see a new reversal in favor of the US currency with a further fall in the direction of the lower line of the corridor. Closing the pair's rate above the corridor will significantly increase the pair's chances of continuing growth.
GBP/USD-Daily.
On the daily chart, in addition to two trend lines resembling a narrowing triangle, a descending trend corridor is formed, which determines the current mood of traders as "bearish". And this corridor can already become a source of a very strong sales signal. The pair's quotes performed a rise to its upper line, so the rebound from it will work in favor of the US dollar and the resumption of the fall to the lower trend line. This signal is potentially very strong.
News overview:
No important reports were released in the UK or the US on Tuesday, February 25.
The economic calendar for the US and the UK:
The news calendar for the countries of the USA and Great Britain on February 26 is empty.
COT report (Commitments of traders):
The most important thing you should pay attention to is the complete equality between general requests for long and short positions ("commitments"). The second is almost complete equality between changes ("changes") for the week before February 18 in the short and long positions. Due to the fact that all traders and major market players both buy and sell the pound, the pair's exchange rate changes very reluctantly, that is, these events are reflected in the absence of a trend on the charts. On the 4-hour chart, this is what is best seen now. According to the latest COT report, large speculators are increasing their long positions, while hedgers are increasing their short positions. The advantage is still on the side of the hedgers, but in general, there is equality.
Forecast for GBP/USD and recommendations for traders:
The trading idea is to sell the pound with an approximate target of 1.2840 if the pair performs a rebound from the upper line of the corridor on the 4-hour chart. However, if there is no rebound, then traders will not receive a signal. The COT report speaks in favor of equality of positions between bull and bear traders. Thus, the trend may be absent for some time, breaking all the graphic patterns and constructions.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, and companies that buy currency for current operations or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
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