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UR/USD – 1H.
Hello, traders! According to the hourly chart, the EUR/USD pair performed the third fall to the upward trend line, which defines the current mood of traders as "bullish". This time there was no rebound, however, the pair's quotes again performed a reversal in favor of the euro and resumed the growth process. Thus, at the moment, the graphical picture of the pair does not change, and bull traders continue to make up for the lost time in recent weeks. Closing the euro/dollar exchange rate under the trend line will work in favor of the US currency and change the mood of traders to "bearish".
EUR/USD – 4H.
The 4-hour chart also continues the growth process. The pair's quotes have returned to the downward trend corridor and are now moving in the direction of its upper line. In addition, a close was made above the Fibo level of 38.2% (1.0899), which increases the probability of further growth in the direction of the next corrective levels of 50.0% (1.0936) and 61.8% (1.0973), which I designated as targets. Today, the divergence is not observed in any indicator.
EUR/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the euro/dollar pair continues to grow in the direction of the upper line of the downward trend corridor. As I said earlier, the growth potential of the euro for this chart is still limited to the level of 1.1100. There are no new graphical constructions and patterns now.
EUR/USD – Weekly.
The most long-term chart indicates at this time that a rebound has been made from the lower line of the tapering triangle, so the growth process should continue with the goal of approximately 1.1500. This goal is for the entire year 2020.
News overview:
On February 26, the United States and the European Union did not have a piece of single interesting news or report.
News calendar for the United States and the European Union:
EU - speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde (09:45 UTC+00).
USA - change in GDP for the 4th quarter (13:30 UTC+00).
USA - change in the volume of orders for long-term products (13:30 UTC+00).
Of course, both Christine Lagarde's speech and reports on GDP and orders for long-term goods are of high importance for traders. However, everything will depend on the content of the ECB Chairman's speech, as well as the values of two reports from the US. The euro needs weak statistics from America to continue its growth in the direction of the indicated goals.
COT report (Commitments of traders):
The new COT report for the week of February 25 will be released tomorrow. The main points that you will need to pay close attention to are the change in the number of long positions in the "Non-commercial" group and short positions in the "Commercial" group. According to recent reports, corporations actively increased purchases, and speculators - sales. And it was speculators who continued to hold the majority in the market. Thus, if there was a reduction in the number of short positions and an increase in long positions during this week, then traders can really count on the completion of the long-term fall of the euro.
Forecast for EUR/USD and recommendations for traders:
In this situation, I still recommend getting up in long positions with targets of 1.0936 and 1.0973. The trend line on the hourly chart is now a factor that supports the "bullish" mood. You can make a Stop Loss for it. There is no signal for the pair's sales at the moment.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, and companies that buy currency for current operations or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
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