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Hello, colleagues!
Yesterday was not very informative. There were no macroeconomic reports, with the exception of new home sales in the United States, which were better than forecasts.
Perhaps this factor did not allow market participants to determine the direction of the main currency pair. We will move on to the technical picture for EUR/USD a little later. For now, we will talk about the data that will be published today.
The eurozone will provide not very significant reports on the volume of lending to the private sector, the monetary aggregate, as well as indices of sentiment in the business community, optimism in the industrial sector, economic sentiment and data on consumer confidence.
But the United States will provide investors with revised fourth-quarter GDP data, durable goods orders, initial claims for unemployment benefits, and data on pending home sales.
There is a place to turn around and find drivers for price movement on the main currency pair.
And again we have to return to the topic of coronavirus. The epidemic is spreading around the world and is spreading to new countries. Against this background, there were fears that the Federal Reserve System (Fed), due to the likelihood of another financial and economic crisis, may move to a more lenient monetary policy and reduce interest rates to support the US economy. However, while this is only a rumor, there were no specific statements from Fed officials about this. For the time being, the head of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, remains silent.
We turn to the technical picture for the euro/dollar, which is quite interesting and curious.
Daily
The "Rickshaw" candle, which appeared on the daily chart at the end of yesterday's trading, demonstrated the uncertainty of market participants in the best possible way. In principle, this model is considered a reversal, and since the pair has already corrected to the level of 38.2 Fibo from the fall of 1.094-1.0777, it would be possible to assume that the euro/dollar will return to the main downward scenario. But that was not the case. At the moment of writing, the pair is trading near 1.0914, which is higher than yesterday's highs of 1.0908.
Apparently, the market has decided to continue the corrective recovery, the next goal of which will be the 50th level and the Kijun line of the Ichimoku indicator. This is the price zone of 1.0935-1.0943. If a long upper shadow remains here and a bearish candlestick pattern is formed, a sales signal will appear. However, at the moment, given the current growth of EUR/USD, the main trading idea is to buy. Let's look for points for opening long positions on smaller timeframes.
H4
As can be clearly seen on this chart, the pair returned above the broken support level and broke through the 89 exponential moving average. After that, there was a rollback to 1.0879 and 89 EMA, which gave those wishing to buy.
At the moment of completion of the review, the pair aims to rise to the Fibo level of 50, as well as to test the 200 exponential moving average, which is located at 1.0947.
If a bearish reversal candle appears on this timeframe in the price zone of 1.0935-1.0947, it can be considered a signal for opening short positions on the euro/dollar.
H1
Finally, there is a breakdown of the upper border of the ascending channel, which yesterday was not destined to take place. If the pair fixes three candles in a row above the channel's resistance line and rolls back to the area of 1.0920-1.0915, you can try buying.
Right here and now, during the growth, I do not recommend buying, and to open sales, as noted above, you need to wait for the appropriate signals. Judging by the intensity of the upward movement, I do not rule out that there is a change in the trend. However, much will be decided near 1.0950.
Good luck!
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