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GBP/USD – 1H.
Hello, traders! According to the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair performed a new reversal in favor of the English currency and continues the growth within the upward trend corridor. But it continues very hard, risking to close under the corridor in the next few hours. If this happens, the mood of traders will change from "bullish" to "bearish" and the pair's quotes will fall. The main events of yesterday were not related to economic reports, although in the UK there were several quite important ones published. However, much more important are the new aid packages for the American and European economies, and the agreements reached by Saudi Arabia and Russia during the OPEC meeting on reducing oil production. Also, all OPEC+ countries will have to reduce production by 10 million barrels per day in the period from May to June. By the end of the year, the total reduction in production should reach another 8 million barrels per day. Thus, the oil market should soon begin to recover.
GBP/USD – 4H.
As seen on the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair continues to grow in the direction of the corrective level of 61.8% (1.2516). The rebound of the pair's exchange rate on April 10 from this level will work in favor of the US dollar and resume the fall in the direction of the corrective level of 50.0% (1.2303). There are no pending divergences in any indicator today. It is also possible to rebound from the level of 1.2486, from which the pair previously fought back three times (blue rectangle). Closing the pair's rate above the level of 61.8% will increase the probability of further growth of the British dollar in the direction of the next corrective level of 76.4% (1.2777).
GBP/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the pair's quotes increased to the corrective level of 50.0% (1.2463). The rebound of the pair's exchange rate from this Fibo level will work in favor of the US currency and the beginning of the pair's fall in the direction of the corrective level of 38.2% (1.2215). Thus, on the two charts, we have three difficulty levels at once, from which the pair can perform a rebound. Closing quotes above the Fibo level of 50.0% and above the levels of 1.2486 and 1.2516 will keep the mood of traders "bullish", and the Briton will get a good opportunity for additional growth.
GBP/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the pound/dollar pair performed a false breakdown of the lower trend line. Thus, until the pair's quotes are fixed under this line, there is a high probability of growth in the direction of the two upper trend lines.
Overview of fundamentals:
On Thursday, the UK released weak indicators of GDP and industrial production. But even more, disappointing data on initial applications for unemployment benefits in the United States has maintained the bearish mood of the majority of traders.
News calendar for the US and UK:
EU - Good Friday.
USA - consumer price index (14:30 GMT).
USA - consumer price index excluding food and energy prices (14:30 GMT).
On April 10, news from the UK is not expected, as the day will be a holiday - Good Friday. In America, an important inflation indicator for March will be released today, which traders will most likely not pay due attention to.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The latest COT report showed that the activity of major market players continues to fall, as evidenced by the decreasing number of short and long contracts. Moreover, speculators get rid of both types of contracts, which indicates their low interest in the British as a trading instrument. Hedgers hold more contracts in their hands but usually trade against the main trend. Thus, I would say that it is the fall of the British dollar's quotes that are more preferable, despite the overall advantage of long-term contracts. Today, a new COT report will be released, which will show how the mood of major players has changed over the past week, and will allow you to draw new conclusions.
Forecast for GBP/USD and recommendations to traders:
I believe that today we should consider selling the pound with the target of 1.2303 when rebounding from any of the levels - 1.2463, 1.2486, 1.2516, or from all at once. I recommend buying the pound if it is possible to close above the level of 61.8% on the 4-hour chart with the target of 1.2777.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy currency to ensure current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
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