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GBP/USD – 1H.
Hello, traders! According to the hourly chart, the pound/dollar pair continues to fall in quotes within the downward trend corridor, due to which the current mood of traders is characterized as "bearish". Recently, the British position has been very much shaken. There are a huge number of problems in the UK at the moment, and of various kinds. Financial problems are the government's biggest headache. Brexit alone has had a very negative impact on the British economy in recent years. Now the coronavirus epidemic, which has affected Britain the most in Europe, as well as the lack of progress in trade negotiations with the European Union and the lack of desire in London to extend the "transition period", continue to kill the desire of traders to buy the pound. If London had a trade deal with America, as was planned last year, the economic consequences of leaving the EU would not be so "black". In the meantime, there is no positive for buyers of the pound. Thus, the fall of the English currency is absolutely natural.
GBP/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the pound/dollar pair performed a consolidation under the sideways trend corridor, indicating its desire to continue the fall of quotes in the direction of the corrective level of 23.6% (1.1834). Thus, on the two lower charts, the mood of traders is clearly characterized as "bearish". Growth prospects for the British are now few. Traders will be able to count on this scenario when the pair closes above the descending corridor on the hourly chart. There are no pending divergences on the current chart for any indicator.
GBP/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the pair's quotes made a consolidation under the corrective level of 38.2% (1.2215). Thus, the fall can be continued in the direction of the Fibo level of 23.6% (1.1908), and this chart is the third, which allows traders to count on a further fall in quotes.
GBP/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the pound/dollar pair performed a false breakdown of the lower trend line. Thus, until the pair's quotes are fixed under this line, there is a high probability of growth in the direction of the top two trend lines, but in the long term.
Overview of fundamentals:
On Friday, the calendar of economic events in the UK was empty, but there was news of the failure of the next stage of negotiations on the living conditions of the UK and the European Union after Brexit. Thus, the information background for the pound was negative. In America, economic reports were extremely weak but did not have the same effect on traders.
News calendar for the US and UK:
On May 18, the calendar of economic events in the UK and the US is empty.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The latest COT report showed that professional market players have started to increase their positions on the British pound. This applies to both long and short contracts. Their number on the hands of speculators increased by 3,844 and 4,539 during the reporting week. Thus, the largest increase was in short-contracts and the largest number of speculators also had short-contracts. The total number of contracts among all major market participants remains in favor of long, but the advantage is not too great. What matters more is the number of short contracts in the hands of speculators and they have an advantage here over deals to sell the British pound. Based on this, we can conclude that the position of the British currency continues to deteriorate, more and more professional traders are trying to get rid of this currency.
Forecast for GBP/USD and recommendations to traders:
I recommend making new sales of the British pound in the current conditions only after closing at 1.2095 (the lower line of the corridor) with the goal of 1.1834. I recommend buying the pound only if it closes above the descending corridor on the hourly chart with the nearest targets on the 4-hour chart.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy currency, not for speculative profit, but to ensure current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
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