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Hello!
It is no secret that market sentiment is subject to frequent changes. Yesterday's outsiders become favorites and vice versa. This fully applies to the AUD/USD currency pair, which we will analyze now.
Weekly
Let's start with the results of last week when the Australian dollar showed strengthening against its namesake from the United States. However, relative to further growth, the rather long upper shadow of the last candle caused some confusion. Nevertheless, at the moment of writing, the "Aussie" is growing quite actively and re-tests the resistance of sellers at 0.6617 for a breakdown. It was this mark that blocked the pair's growth last week and pushed the quote down.
If the rise continues, then after passing 0.6617, the pair will expect no less strong resistance at 0.6685. The weekly chart clearly shows that this is where the pair collapsed to 0.5510. Such a significant drop indicates the strength of the mark of 0.6685, especially since a little higher, at 0.6704, passes the 50 simple moving average, which is able to provide additional and very serious resistance to the likely rise of the exchange rate.
The upward scenario will be crossed out by a reversal on the decline and closing of the weekly session under the important mark of 0.6400, but at the moment, the upward prospects of the "Aussie" clearly look more preferable.
Daily
At this time interval, in addition to the resistance level of 0.6617, the pair tests the 200 exponential moving average for a breakout. If today's trading ends above 200 EMA, it is highly likely that the Australian dollar will continue to grow.
The cancellation of the ascending scenario will be an alternate breakdown of the Tenkan (0.6514) and Kijun (0.6440) lines, after which the pair risks falling to a significant level of 0.6400.
Once again, I emphasize that in the current situation, the bullish direction of AUD/USD looks more obvious, so we will try to look for points for purchases on smaller timeframes.
H1
On the hourly chart, I built an ascending channel with parameters: 0.6403-0.6520 (support line) and 0.6617 (resistance line). At the time of completion of this article, the pair shows the steady growth and breaks through the middle line (dotted) of the channel. If three consecutive hourly candles close above the average line and the resistance level, you can try buying the Australian currency with the nearest target at 0.6685 on the pullback to the price zone of 0.6625-0.6620.
In case of a false breakout of the channel's midline and the resistance level of 0.6617 and the appearance of bearish candle analysis models, I recommend selling the pair with the nearest target at 0.6585. Sellers' longer-range targets are around 0.6550.
This week, no statistical data is scheduled to be released from Australia, so the fundamental factors for the AUD/USD pair will be represented by macroeconomic readings from the US and speeches by senior monetary officials of the Fed. In this regard, it is particularly worth highlighting the speech of the Chairman of the Federal Reserve System (FRS) of the United States Jerome Powell, which will be held on May 29, at 16:00 London time.
Good luck with trading!
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