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If the ECB is ready to save Italy, is it worth waiting for similar steps from the EU? According to Francois Villeroy de Galhau, head of the Bank of France, there is no need to use the capital key when the volume of asset purchases under the quantitative easing program is related to the size of the economy. The main preferences from QE are received by Germany, whose GDP this year is likely to decline by 6.5%, while the Italian counterpart can sag by more than 9%. Apparently, the European Central Bank is ready not only to expand the purchase of assets but also to step on the throat of its own principles. This is good news for the single European currency. However, in the current situation, little depends on Frankfurt alone. Historical decisions this week will be made in Brussels.
The Franco-German initiative to save the European economy contributed to the growth of the EUR / USD pair last week above 1.10, but a counter proposal from a number of EU member states pushed it back below 1.09.
Austria, the Netherlands, Denmark, and Sweden are in favor of providing loans from a time-limited fund for countries in the region that are struggling to recover from the pandemic, not the subsidies offered by France and Germany last week.
Competitive bids were received earlier than the European Commission's own plans for a restoration fund, which will be announced on Wednesday. According to experts, any deviation from free aid provided by the original plan will be perceived as negative for the euro. However, if the Franco-German debt offer passes the test within the next week, this will be the main positive event for the euro.
In the meantime, the main currency pair looks in the direction of US stock indices and weighs what is more important: the opening of leading economies or the growing tension between Beijing and Washington? According to the Netherlands Bureau of Economic Policy, in March, international trade fell by 1.4% in monthly terms and by 4.3% in annual terms. This is bad news for the export-oriented eurozone economy. However, it is expected that from May - June the indicator will begin to recover, also due to the active fulfillment of China's obligations to the United States.
As for the relations of the latter, it has undoubtedly worsened, but it should be understood that Donald Trump needs to win the presidential election, and without pressure on Beijing this is unlikely to be possible. Moreover, the escalation of the situation forces China to stimulate its own economy to increase purchases of American goods. Since the beginning of the pandemic, the People's Bank of China has poured into it about $ 827.6 billion and is ready to continue in the same vein. This allows us to count on a V-shaped recovery of Chinese GDP, which can support the EUR / USD bulls in the medium term, which is stuck in the range of 1.0770–1.1000.
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