03.07.202005:10 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on July 3, 2020

EUR/USD

Yesterday's release of US data showed the following data: 4,800,000 new jobs were created in the non-agricultural sector in July against the expectation of 3,000,000, the share of the economically active population increased from 60.8% to 61.5%, unemployment fell from 13.3% to 11.1% against the forecast of 12.3%, the volume of factory orders for could have increased by 8.0% (forecast of 8.6%). In the end, this has led to an increase in stock prices 0.45% (S&P500), the euro by 13 points, the rise in the price of copper 0.58%, and a decrease in yields of US government bonds, 5-year bonds in particular, with 0.312% to 0.294%, and these are typical correlations of short-term optimism of American investors. Technically, there are prerequisites that this short-term optimism, at least for the dollar, will develop into a medium-term trend.

The price returned to the consolidation range of 1.1195-1.1265 with the Marlin indicator declining on the daily scale chart. If the price falls below the lower limit of the 1.1195 range, the nearest target will open along the blue price channel at 1.1103.

The price from above tested the MACD indicator line on the four-hour chart. The entry of the signal line of the Marlin oscillator into the zone of negative values indicates a high probability of a repeated attack of the price for this support. Consolidating the price below the MACD line automatically leads to a subsequent attack at 1.1195. But today, the United States is celebrating the Independence Day holiday, so we are more likely to wait for price taking to continue.

Manufacturing orders in Germany, retail sales in the eurozone and business activity in the US non-manufacturing sector for June will be released on Monday. The forecast for the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI is 49.5 points against 45.4 in May. This news can be decisive for the dollar to strengthen further.