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It seems that financial markets, weighing on invisible scales the prospects of a second wave of coronavirus infection and the fact of a sustained recovery of the world economy, are beginning to choose the second.
The published data on employment in the States last week, as well as the strong growth of the Chinese stock market on Monday, in the wake of hopes for the continuation of the process of restoring the national economy in China and in general, understanding by investors that the strengthening of this process will bring a great profit, forcing them to become more active, leaving the protective assets, buy risky ones.
What the US economy is gaining is already a fact. The business activity index (PMI) released on Monday in the services sector in June rose above expectations to 47.9 points against a forecast of growth to 46.8 points and the previous May value of 37.0 points. At the same time, ISM business activity index in the non-manufacturing sector jumped to 66.0 points in June, while growth was expected to reach 49.0 points from 41.0 points. The numbers of the index of purchasing managers for the non-manufacturing sector of the United States from ISM also pleased investors. The indicator added up to 57.1 points from 45.4 points in May against the background of expectations of growth growth to 50.1 points.
Of course, in this situation, the US dollar will experience big problems with growth against major currencies, but it can receive support in relation to currencies from the EM market, where investors are not in a hurry to return.
Yes, of course, the increased tendency to take a risky game puts pressure on the dollar, but so far, only as a hindrance and nothing more. The formation of a stable trend towards its decline is not observed. So far, according to the dynamics of the ICE dollar index, it has been trading against a basket of major currencies in the "side" for the last half of the month and it declined below the level of 97 points only on Monday. Time will tell whether this trend will continue this week or not, but, as we indicated earlier, the absence of a strong second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic will more and more stimulate market participants to buy risky assets, and, on the contrary, get rid of defensive ones. which will lead to a steady downward trend in the US currency.
Forecast of the day:
The AUD/USD pair is trading at the level of 0.6975 following an RBA meeting on monetary policy, at which the regulator expectedly decided to leave interest rates unchanged. The price consolidating above the level of 0.6975 will lead to its growth to 0.7045, if the positive background in the markets continues.
The NZD/USD pair is located at the level of 0.6560. Its dynamics are affected by the same forces as the AUD/USD pair. A price consolidation above the level of 0.6560 will lead to an increase in the price to 0.6655.
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