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The Federal Reserve has fairly scared market participants with the prospect of new stimulus measures, based only on the fact that the pace of economic recovery is too slow. Supposedly, the macroeconomic dynamics rather indicate a prolonged depression. There was every reason to believe that the data on applications for unemployment benefits will only be another proof of these fears. But one look at the euro's chart is enough to know that something has gone wrong. However, there is nothing strange with the Fed being excessively cautious, since the central bank is obliged to behave in this way, and proceed in advance from the worst possible scenarios.
The data on applications for unemployment benefits differed so much from forecasts that market participants even took some time to understand them. Initially, it was assumed that the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits would be reduced from 1,427,000 to 1,380,000, and repeated, from 19,290,000 to 19,200,000. If these forecasts were true, it would say that the pace of recovery in economic activity is extremely low, and urgent measures are immediately needed. Otherwise, America will experience a protracted economic depression. However, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits fell to 1,314,000, and repeated to 18,062,000. Moreover, the previous values were revised downward. So, there were 1,413,000 initial applications, and only 18,760,000 repeated ones. In other words, the pace of labor market recovery is noticeably higher than anticipated. Moreover, for a relatively long time. The revision of previous results made participants think, which was the reason for the belated reaction of the market.
Repeated unemployment insurance claims (United States):
Optimism about the dollar will continue today, because along with the labor market, inflationary dynamics are also of great importance. The rate of decline in producer prices should slow down from -0.8% to -0.3%. Given that producer prices are the leading indicator for inflation, it means that consumer prices will soon begin to grow. At the same time, there is reason to believe that the data will be slightly better, and the rate of decline in producer prices will slow down to -0.2%, which will further please investors.
Producer prices (United States):
From the point of view of technical analysis, we see an intensive downward move from the range level of 1.1350, which played the role of resistance in the market. The price recovery is 100%, relative to the jump in activity on July 8, where the point of variable support is found in the area of 1.1260/1.1270.
The high level of volatility is confirmed by the speculative hype in the market, on the basis of which there are impulsive jumps.
Considering the trading schedule in general terms (daily period), the price movement is fixed within the boundaries of the previously set band 1,1180//1,1250//1,1350, where the quote has almost reached the average level.
We can assume that another round of short positions will occur if the price is pinned higher than 1.1260, which will lead to a breakout of the average level of 1.1250 and send the quote towards the values of 1.1200-1.1190.
An alternative scenario considers a slowdown in the price within the range of 1.1260/1.1300, in the event that market participants will not be able to consolidate, lower than 1.1260.
From the point of view of complex indicator analysis, we see that the indicators of technical instruments on the minute and hour periods signal a sale, due to the price returning to the area of recent support.
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