10.07.202010:28 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Crude oil prices continue to plummet

The price of crude oil continues to decline on Friday. This may lead to black gold's negative dynamics in the average weekly figure. The continuous growth of COVID-19 cases in the US and the rest of the world still remains the main indicator of the decline. This triggers a limited demand for fuel. At the same time, the scale of the reduction in demand is still unclear, however, some radical analysts argue that the scale will be quite considerable. They also added that the prospects for a quick recovery are also uncertain.

The price of raw materials has prepared to weaken its rapidly recruited positions. The correction is anticipated for a long time, and now came the very moment when all its signs are evident. In the worst-case scenario (which, incidentally, is also quite real if the second wave of the pandemic does not begin to subside), the demand may weaken to such a point that WTI crude oil will inevitably be close to the previous resistance point at around $ 30 per barrel.

The price of futures contracts for Brent crude oil for delivery in September at a trading floor in London has already dropped significantly to 1.3% or 0.55 dollars, which pushed its price to the level of $41.8 per barrel. Such a substantial reduction was a continuation of the trend, which is decisive this week. At the closing of yesterday's trading session, contracts also fell in price by 2.2% or $ 0.94 and reached the level of $ 42.35 per barrel, which was the lowest since the beginning of this month.

The price of futures contracts for WTI light crude oil for delivery in August at electronic auctions in New York dipped 1.62% or $0.64 and its current level remains at $ 38.98 per barrel. The bad news is that its value has stepped over the strategically important mark of $ 40 per barrel, and is still expected to continue to fall to the next level of resistance. Yesterday's trading also ended negative as contracts began to cost immediately 3.1% less or $ 1.28 per barrel, which sent it to the mark of $ 39.62 per barrel.

All this was evidence of a general tendency towards a decrease in value for the two brands, which has been going on for two weeks in a row. And there are no prospects for today's session to end in positive territory.

Additional confirmation of this is the unsatisfactory statistics. Thus, oil reserves in the United States of America became 5.65 million barrels more. Gasoline inventories fell 4.8 million barrels, while distillates, on the contrary, jumped 3.1 million barrels. It is important to note that the total reserves in Cushing rose by 2.2 million barrels. Experts' initial forecasts were much better with an expected decrease in reserves of about 3.7 million barrels.

Nevertheless, some analysts take a completely different point of view on changes in the oil market. They point out that the correction that is happening now is a temporary trend, preparing the platform for the next significant upward jump. Thus, the price of black gold in the future may rise to high levels by $ 100 per barrel.

The main idea of these experts is that amid serious financial pressure, producers will be forced to limit their production, which will lead to shortages and excitement, which may prompt the price of raw materials to rise significantly to $ 150 per barrel. However, this is all a long-term prospect, which is calculated until 2025.

There is also an opposite point of view, according to which the demand for black gold will demonstrate a global decline against the background of the spread of the second wave of coronavirus infection in the world and then will not be able to recover for a long time to the levels that existed before the crisis. Thus, the price of crude oil will be under pressure for a long time, which is unknown when and under the influence of what factors will stop.

However, the majority of analysts argue that in any case, the price of raw materials will grow exactly to the extent that allows mining companies to receive minimal profit. After that, they can get stuck in a narrow corridor, out of which external factors will help them, the main one of which will be the level of demand. It is assumed that it will be a demand that will become the main driver of oil prices in the future.

However, price hikes are inevitable, since it is the incentive for increasing production, so it is quite possible that the world will face a new record.