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Traders in the currency market are focused on waiting for the start of production of a vaccine against COVID-19, which fully weakens the position of the US dollar, which, we recall, has been holding its positions for almost half a year, not wanting to give up under the pressure of objective reality, which is manifested in the continuation the process of recovery of the world economy in general and American and Chinese in particular.
On Wednesday, news of an event that, if it had happened, for example, in the spring, would have had a more significant negative impact on the trading mood – the mutual decisions of Washington and Beijing to close consulates in Houston and Wuhan, respectively, fell on the markets. The market somehow reacted slowly to this news, fully focusing on the prospects for the production of vaccines against coronavirus infection from a number of American and other companies at the beginning of this fall. In addition, new promises of financial assistance to US citizens and businesses are being made. Trump, the conclusion of an agreement between EU members on the European economic recovery Fund and the generally positive corporate reporting of companies for the 2nd quarter, are increasingly reducing the interest of market participants in the dollar as a safe haven currency. In fact, we are now seeing the implementation of our scenario, which was made in the spring of this year.
The speech of the head of the ECB C. Lagarde on Wednesday, who declared the importance of the EU's unity and that the basic scenario of the Central Bank corresponds to the situation favors the euro. In fact, she made it clear that the earlier measures to support the EU economy are correct and effective. On this wave, the euro, despite the negative dynamics on the European stock market, resumed its growth against the dollar, and all other major currencies, with the exception of the British one, supported this dynamics.
The publication of data on the secondary housing market in America had a partly negative impact on the rate of the US currency. Sales rose but fell short of forecasts. In percentage terms, they jumped 20.7% from -9.7% in May and the forecast for growth of 24.5%. In absolute terms, they added to 4.72 million from 3.91 million, against expectations of an increase to 4.78 million.
Today, the focus will be on the number of initial unemployment claims for the past week. It is assumed that the growth rate will remain at the level of 1.3000.
We expect that the market is unlikely to actively react to these data, if they do not noticeably differ from those expected. This is due to the prevalence of the topic of the early start of industrial-scale production of vaccines against COVID-19.
We continue to believe that the global weakening of the dollar will continue.
Forecast of the day:
The AUD/USD pair suspended its growth above 0.7130. Rising tension between China and the US, as well as the local technical overbought of the pair may lead to a correction to the level of 0.7100, but only after declining below the level of 0.7130. At the same time, price consolidation above this level may help to resume its growth to 0.7200. but in general, we believe that the pair has more chances to continue its growth amid the weakening dollar.
The USD/CAD pair is at the level of 1.3400. Good statistics on the Canadian economy, as well as the rise in oil prices and the fundamental weakness of the dollar put pressure on the pair. If the price breaks the level of 1.3400, it will fall to 1.3315.
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