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GBP/USD 1H
The GBP/USD pair continued to adjust to the upward trend line on Monday. I reached this line during the day but could not get a foothold below it. Thus, buyers now have a good opportunity to resume the upward trend. However, we think that the bears will make a second attempt to overcome the trend line, which will be successful. In this case, the trend for the pair will officially change to a downward one. Thus, the fate of the pound/dollar pair for the next few days or even weeks is likely to be decided on Tuesday. The Kijun-sen line also runs next to the trend line, overcoming it will also open the way for bears to move down.
GBP/USD 15M
Both linear regression channels turned down on the 15-minute timeframe on Monday, showing that traders no longer consider long positions and are ready for a correction. The new Commitments of Traders (COT) report for the British currency is even more alarming than the previous one. Recall that the last COT report for July 15-21 showed that non-commercial traders opened more Sell-contracts than Buy, however, the British pound continued to grow throughout the reporting period. Friday's COT report showed roughly the same pattern. The non-commercial category of traders, which is considered the "engine" of the market, opened 2,700 Sell-contracts and closed (!) 8,700 Buy-contracts. Thus, the net position for this category of traders has fallen even further, which means that the bearish mood has increased. Such figures for the second straight week make us think about a possible change in the trend and a new long fall in the pound, since the most important group of traders has not been buying the pound all this time, but selling it, but the British currency is growing in the market. We are still inclined to the option that professional traders are preparing for a serious fall in the pound, but will the foundation allow them to do this? However, the fundamental background is not a secret, so we believe that professional traders are absolutely clear about what they are doing.
The fundamental background for the GBP/USD pair remained the same on Monday. Business activity indices in the UK and the US did not have much impact on the course of trading, although the British IDA was worse than the forecast, and the most important American ISM – better than the forecast. However, the US dollar rose in price most of the day, not paying attention to the news. What now can affect the course of trading, if we take the fundamental factors? We believe that only some-extremely important information can not be ignored. This is clearly not a topic of negotiations between Democrats and Republicans regarding a new stimulus package of aid, nor is it a statistic on COVID-2019 morbidity. Something more important and not in favor of the dollar must happen for the upward trend to resume. We remind you that the pound has been growing non-stop for a month and added 9 cents during this time, almost without adjusting, and despite the fact that the UK economy is not in a better state than the US. Therefore, even if the pound's growth is natural, from the point of view of the currency market, there must first be a noticeable correction and only then – the resumption of the upward trend. However, we believe that the upward trend is over. Or very close to it.
Based on all of the above, we have two trading ideas for August 4:
1) Buyers remain the dominant traders in the pound/dollar market, but at the moment there is a correction. Since sellers failed to overcome the Kijun-sen line and the trend line from the first time, formally, long positions with the goal of the resistance level of 1.3240 are now relevant. However, we believe that the bears will attack again tomorrow and can overcome these two obstacles. The potential Take Profit is about 170 points.
2) Short positions on the pound/dollar pair are advised to be open with the support level of 1.2850 and the Senkou Span B line(1.2760) after overcoming the Kijun-sen line (1.3023) and, respectively, the upward trend line. Sellers will have a good chance of forming a new downward trend below these two barriers. The potential Take Profit in this case is from 160 to 240 points.
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