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Hourly chart of the GBP/USD pair
The price of the GBP/USD currency pair successfully left the ascending channel through its upper border, which provoked a new downward movement. Therefore, novice traders could work with this new sell signal (closing at the end of the hour under the channel), as we suggested last night. We named two targets for selling in the evening review - 1.3024 and 1.2979. As you can see, the first one was reached, that is, traders could have earned around 40 points on this. The MACD indicator continues to be directed downward, so now there are no signals for starting a correction. Consequently, the pound/dollar pair may continue to fall to the 1.2980 level, which is the previous local low. The further fate of the pound will depend on the ability of market participants to overcome this level.
Novice traders will have something to pay attention to. The day is quite difficult in fundamental terms. There will be several macroeconomic reports, all of them important. We have already talked about US inflation in the EUR/USD article. However, in addition to it, the long-awaited report on GDP for the second quarter will be published in the UK today. The drop in GDP (Gross Domestic Product) is expected to be 20.5% q/q (that is, relative to the first quarter of 2020). This is a huge drop and only the US GDP, which declined by 33% in the same second quarter, can compete with it. No country in the European Union, from where the UK has been trying to exit for four years (Brexit), has such a strong economic decline. Thus, if these figures are confirmed or turn out worse, the pound may continue to fall today (the pair moves down). A report on industrial production for June will also be released today, which could grow in monthly terms by 9.2%. A reported value below this figure may also provoke a decline in the pair. But the GDP report will still come in first place. Thus, even in the morning, novice traders will be able to find out what the changes will be among the most important indicators of the state of the British economy and, before the release of the report on US inflation, trade according to the data received.
The following scenarios are possible on August 12:
1) We still do not recommend buying the pound/dollar pair, since the price initially consolidated below the ascending trend line, and below the ascending channel today. Thus, sellers dominate the market for the time being, therefore, you need to trade for a fall. At the same time, we cannot yet say that a strong downward trend has formed. And it is not a fact that the price will be able to overcome the 1.2980 level.
2) Sales, from our point of view, are much more appropriate now. Novice traders could already sell the pair at the signal to exit the ascending channel. Now it is recommended to either remain selling while aiming for 1.2980, or wait for the MACD indicator to turn up, which will indicate the beginning of a correction, and close sell deals then. You should remember that the market can sharply reverse in the other direction when news comes out, so you should be careful. A close below 1.2980 could trigger a drop towards 1.2923.
What's on the chart:
Support and Resistance Price Levels - Levels that are targets when buying or selling. You can place Take Profit levels near them.
Red lines - channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show which direction it is preferable to trade now.
Arrows up/down - indicate when you reach or overcome which obstacles you should trade up or down.
MACD indicator is a histogram and a signal line, the crossing of which is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use in combination with trend lines (channels, trend lines).
Important speeches and reports (always contained in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their exit, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement.
Beginners in the forex market should remember that every trade cannot be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.
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