17.08.202012:22 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Latest COT report (Commitments of Traders). Weekly outlook for GBP/USD

Revisione a lungo termine

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Latest COT report (Commitments of Traders). Weekly outlook for GBP/USD

According to the latest COT report (Commitments of Traders dated 08/11/20), open interest to the pound increased (179071 against 176728). Following the change in priorities in the total position, the preferences in the net position of the Commercial group changed. Thanks to this, the report's total (predominance of short 2.2%) and the Commercial group (predominance of short 0.7%) have now a bearish advantage. Meanwhile, it should be noted that the Non-Commercial group is actively reducing its priority (long +2076 - short -9830), which so far also remains with a predominance of short positions (p. 2821, short direction).

The main conclusion

There is a change of preferences in the current confrontation. The large players in the long term are beginning to lean towards a bearish scenario. If the trend continues, it is unlikely that players will be left without a bonus.

Technical picture

Technically, the pair is now in the zone of a downward correction, which, due to lack of performance, is acquiring the character of consolidation. The bullish traders implement a consolidation in the bullish zone relative to the weekly cloud, so that if the upward trend continues to the upward targets, the bulls can add a target for the breakdown of the weekly cloud. The development of a downward correction in the current situation is guided by the support of the final borders of the daily Ichimoku cross and the weekly cloud. Interactions with these supports will determine further opportunities and prospects for bearish mood.

In the smaller halves, the pair is in the zone of support and attraction of key levels, uniting their efforts today in the 1.3090-70 area (central Pivot level + weekly long-term trend). Finding higher levels determines the advantages of the players for increasing on H1. The next upward targets are located intraday today at 1.3135 - 1.3185 - 1.3229. A consolidation below the key levels (1.3090-70) will swing the scales on H1 in favor of strengthening bearish moods. The support for the classic pivot levels 1.3041 - 1.2997 - 1.2947 will become the benchmarks for the decline.

Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (9.26.52), Pivot Points (Classic), Moving Average (120)

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