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In yesterday's trading, the EUR/USD currency pair showed an upward trend and ended Tuesday's session at 1.1834. At the same time, strong support was formed at 1.1784. As you can see, the bears failed to push this mark for two days in a row.
Yesterday's macroeconomic statistics from Germany were all in the green zone. Both the final GDP data for the second quarter and the three IFO indices were better than the forecast values. Investors were particularly pleased with the improved business climate in the leading European economy. Yesterday's reports once again showed that the German economy is recovering from the consequences of COVID-19 at a fairly good pace. However, these and other data, in my opinion, are local in nature. Investors are looking forward to the speech of the Chairman of the Federal Reserve System (FRS). According to some forecasts, the head of the Federal Reserve may announce a number of changes in monetary policy. In particular, the probability of reducing the target inflation rate, which can be reached before the US Central Bank begins the process of tightening monetary policy, is considered. Powell's speech, which is expected on Thursday, at 14:10 (London time), and can have a very serious impact on the price dynamics of the US currency.
And at today's trading, at the moment of writing, the pair has already fallen to the key level of 1.1800, where it once again found strong support and began to restore lost positions. Currently, the euro/dollar is trading near 1.1822. If the euro bulls manage to return the quote to the opening price of today's trading (1.1834), the subsequent growth will become almost inevitable. In this case, the census of yesterday's highs of 1.1843 will open the way to the Tenkan line of the Ichimoku indicator, which is at a strong technical level of 1.1860. As I have repeatedly assumed, the pair's return above Tenkan and consolidation above this line will allow us to count on the subsequent growth of the quote to 1.1882, 1.1900, 1.1915 and 1.1965. If you fail to break through the Tenkan, the pair may remain in the side range or begin to decline. Let me stress once again that much of the future fate of the US dollar will depend on the rhetoric of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech.
H1
The pair failed to stay above the used moving averages (50 MA, 89 EMA and 200 EMA) and returned lower. It is also necessary to note the black dotted line, which is the middle line of the ascending channel and provides strong resistance to the price.
If we turn to trading recommendations, there is some nervousness in the market ahead of the Fed's speech, which means that it makes sense to consider both positioning options.
I recommend considering sales after updating yesterday's lows of 1.1784, with a small target at 1.1754. The graph shows everything perfectly. As for purchases, they will become more relevant after a true breakdown of the strong technical level of 1.1850 on the pullback to this mark. You can try to buy a pair from the current price of 1.1820. However, it is right now that the moving averages are breaking through, which may hinder subsequent growth, so the risk is high.
The main macroeconomic background of today will be represented by data from the US on orders for durable goods. These indicators will once again show how much the COVID-19 pandemic has affected the world's leading economy.
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