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Indeed, the words of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell from last Thursday caused the dollar to significantly weaken, which lasted for a considerable part of Friday. Thus, investors expressed their attitude to the Fed's plans. The dollar stopped falling when US data was published on Friday, which presented an unexpected surprise.
As it often happens, the data didn't come out quite as expected. In particular, personal expenses increased by 1.9%, while their growth was expected by 1.2%. So spending by US citizens has been on the rise for the third straight month. On the one hand, this is pretty good, since rising costs mean that companies' profits will grow, which will push them to increase their staff. This means that employment will continue to grow. However, only if incomes grow along with expenses. And here's the thing: revenue was forecast to decline by 0.4%. And this despite the fact that incomes were also declining for the last two months. But investors were pleasantly surprised when they saw earnings rise by 0.4%. Thus, the risks of a sudden slowdown in economic recovery are sharply reduced. That was the reason why the euro stopped growing. But this was not enough for the dollar to somehow noticeably strengthen its position.
Personal Income (United States):
Today is extremely scarce for serious macroeconomic data. The only data that will be published are for some countries in the eurozone. In particular, Spain is expected to accelerate the decline in consumer prices from -0.6% to -0.8%. So deflation in the fourth economy of the euro area is only getting worse. In Italy, which is the third economy in the euro area, the rate of decline in consumer prices should remain unchanged. Which, too, can hardly be called a positive factor. In addition, the final data on Italy's GDP for the second quarter should confirm the fact that the rate of economic decline has accelerated from -5.5% to -17.3%. But the most interesting is German data, which will be published around the same time that US statistics are usually released. The important thing here is that, according to forecasts, the rate of decline in consumer prices in Germany may remain at the same level of -0.1%. That is, deflation is delayed in Europe's largest economy. And this is an extremely negative factor. Moreover, this week, inflation data is published in the entire euro area. And it is clear that the forecasts for it are rather negative.
Inflation (Germany):
The euro/dollar pair, on the wave of rising interest, has managed to overcome the long-playing stagnation within the borders of 1.1785/1.1850, directing the quote towards the area where trading forces interact at 1.1900/1.1930, where a stop occurred on a natural basis. High dynamics indicate the prevailing speculative interest, while the technical component relative to price levels is still working.
Looking at the trading chart in general terms (the daily period), you can see that the area of trading forces is the upper limit of a four-week flat at 1.1700/1.1800/1.1900(1.1930).
We can assume that the area of trading forces at 1.1900/1.1925, as before, will put pressure on buyers, thus we should not exclude a natural price rebound in the opposite direction of 1.1850.
An alternative scenario is considered if the price settles above the local high of August 18 at 1.1865, which will signal a radical change in the market relative to the side channel.
From the point of view of complex indicator analysis, we see that the indicators of technical instruments at minute and hour intervals have a variable signal (buy/sell) due to price movement within the area where trading forces interact. The daily period signals a purchase by setting the price within the upper limit of the flat.
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