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The fall of the Nasdaq Composite by 10% from all-time highs in a record fast three-day timeframe has boosted demand for safe-haven assets. And if the strengthening of the US dollar allowed the bears on the gold market to test support near $ 1905 per ounce, then the most rapid collapse in the yield of Treasury bonds returned the precious metal to its original positions. Equity markets are heading for a correction, and Forex is eagerly awaiting the ECB meeting, which will determine the fate of the USD index.
If you want to know what will happen to gold, observe the dollar, and the rates of the US debt market. When Treasury yields stabilize, there is no better guide for the precious metal than the US dollar. Judging by the dynamics of speculative positions, the USD index was oversold in the week by September 1, and the euro became the main beneficiary of its decline. Hedge funds grabbed the euro so easily, and the verbal interventions of the ECB chief economist Philip Lane launched a long profit-taking mechanism for EUR / USD.
Dynamics of speculative positions in major world currencies:
Unsurprisingly, the dollar has put gold under pressure, and that on the eve of the September meeting of the ECB it chose to go into consolidation. Would Christine Lagarde want to bring up the exchange rate? Will it signal QE scaling up? The fate of the euro, whose share in the structure of the USD index is 57%, will depend on the answers to these questions.
And yet, in my opinion, no matter how central banks oppose the fact that Washington has embarked on the path of long-term weakening of its own currency, they will surely fail. Most likely, the idea of keeping the federal funds rate at 0.25% for a long time settled in the minds of investors, depriving the dollar of its main trump card. Verbal interventions by Christine Lagarde can only have a temporary effect while increasing the volume of asset purchases in the framework of QE is not as useful as during periods of market turmoil.
Thus, the long-term outlook for the USD index remains bearish, which, coupled with the belief in the limited potential for a rally in US Treasury yields, allows gold to fuel hopes of a rebound in the upward trend. If the rate on US debt starts to rise amid economic recovery, the Fed is likely to follow in the footsteps of the Bank of Japan and start targeting the yield curve.
At the same time, the topic of XAU / USD correction is most likely not disclosed in the short term. Moreover, the interest of central banks in buying gold is gradually fading away. In July, they purchased only 9 tons, which is the lowest since 2018.
Dynamics of gold purchases by central banks:
Technically, the inability of the precious metal to stay above $ 1930 an ounce indicates the weakness of the bulls. If their opponents manage to storm support at $ 1900-1905, gold risks falling to $ 1865, where it is advisable to start forming long-term positions. However, if the ECB is unable to bring the euro to its knees, it will be possible to start buying at the break of resistance at $ 1950.
Gold, daily chart:
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