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The EUR / USD pair continues to trade within the seven-week flat (1.1700 / 1.1810 / 1.1910), during which the level of 1.1755 played as a support that pushed the quote to return at price level 1.1810 / 1.1910.
An impressive slowdown can be seen in the medium-term trend, however, the market is in no hurry to change directions, probably due to the high degree of uncertainty within traders. The reason lies in a number of negative factors, that is, emotions, news and possible deterioration of economic indicators, both in the world and in Europe.
Nonetheless, these uncertainties are used by speculators to easily form local movements in the EUR / USD pair. Because of this, the ideal strategy right now is to control the risks and the potential income.
Thus, if we look at the M15 chart, we will see that the quote fluctuated around values 1.1826 / 1.1871, which became a kind of accumulation within the boundaries of the flat.
It gave quite low volatility at only 44 points, which is 46% below the average level.
Regardless, traders did follow the recommendations on the previous review , that is, working for a breakout in the EUR / USD pair.
Hence, in the daily chart, we can see the very side channel that concentrates the positions of market participants. However, if you do not consider local positions as a prospect in the market, take into account the values 1.1690 and 1.2000, as their breakdown will be a signal of trend changes.
With regards to news, a new round of negotiations between the UK and the EU awaits us this week, and it will probably be hot and speculative in terms of trading.
At the same time, the number of infected people on the coronavirus keeps on growing every day, so many countries are increasingly talking about the second wave and possible pictorial measures. In large cities of France, measures have already been taken, that is, closing of restaurants and bars, as well as banning of mass events.
Another surge of COVID-19 could lead to new market crashes.
Further development
As we can see on the trading chart, the euro consolidated below 1.1810, which strengthened the bearish sentiment in the EUR / USD pair. If this current mood is maintained, the quotes will decline even lower to a price value of 1.1755.
Indicator analysis
All time frames (TF) signal SELL due to the price consolidation below 1.1810.
Weekly volatility / Volatility measurement: Month; Quarter; Year
Volatility is measured relative to the average daily fluctuations, which are calculated every Month / Quarter / Year.
(The dynamics for today is calculated, all while taking into account the time this article is published)
Volatility is at 80 points, which is 81% higher than last Friday. The acceleration is obvious, but it is not going to end yet. Speculators still have the opportunity to exceed the 100-point mark.
Key levels
Resistance zones: 1.1910 **; 1.2000 ***; 1.2100 *; 1.2450 **; 1.2550; 1.2825.
Support Zones: 1,1800; 1.1650 *; 1,1500; 1.1350; 1.1250 *; 1.1180 **; 1.1080; 1.1000 ***.
* Periodic level
** Range level
*** Psychological level
Also check trading recommendations for the GBP/USD pair here, or brief trading recommendations for the EUR/USD and GBP/USD pairs here.
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