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GBP/USD 1H
The GBP/USD pair traded mostly sideways on September 24. By the end of the day, the pair's quotes reached the upper border of the descending channel, which continues to maintain a downward trend. The downward trend will be cancelled if the pair leaves this channel, at least for a while. At the same time, prospects for buyers remain rather dim. We would say that it makes no sense to wait for a new upward trend before the price settles above the Kijun-sen line. Rebounding from the upper line of the descending trend channel may trigger a resumption of the downward trend.
GBP/USD 15M
Both linear regression channels turned to the upside on the 15-minute timeframe, which signals the beginning of an upward correction. The latest Commitments of Traders (COT) report for the British pound, which came out last Friday, was very expressive. The previous report shows that professional traders became more bullish despite the fact that the British currency fell 700 points in price. The new COT report turned out to be much more logical. Non-commercial traders closed 4,500 Buy-contracts (longs) and opened 7,000 Sell-contracts (shorts) from September 9 to 15. Thus, the net position for the "non-commercial" category of traders decreased by 11,500 contracts at once. This is very significant, since this group has 81,000 contracts. Therefore, this time the data of the COT report coincides with the nature of trading in the foreign exchange market. Commercial traders were even more interesting, as they closed 37,000 Buy-contracts and 45,000 Sell-contracts in just a week. This suggests that many large players are currently not interested in the pound as an investment currency. The future of the UK and its economy is so uncertain that traders are not interested in buying or selling. Commercial traders are hedgers and, judging by the COT report, they simply switch to other currencies rather than use the pound in their accounts. The new COT report, to be released this Friday, may show minor changes, however, the sentiment of non-commercial traders is likely to become even more bearish.
No major macroeconomic reports were released in the UK on Thursday, September 24. Judging by the fact that the pound/dollar pair was trading sideways throughout the day, market participants were not interested in any of the three speeches from the top officials of the UK and US economies. Or they simply did not contain any important information. One way or another, but we do have one event for the day - the report on orders for durable goods in the United States. However, traders may also ignore this, since the market reaction to macroeconomic data still does not always follow. Therefore, Friday, just like Thursday, can turn out to be very boring and calm in terms of movement.
We have two trading ideas for September 25:
1) Buyers have let go of the lead and now they have to work hard enough to get it back. You can consider buying the British pound, but the price should settle above the descending channel and the Kijun-sen line (1.2827) with the first targets being the Senkou Span B line (1.2898) and the resistance level 1.3020. However, given the fundamental background and the general mood of market participants, there are doubts that the trend will change in the near future. Take Profit in this case will be from 50 to 150 points.
2) Sellers only have to watch out for the pair above the descending channel. The nearest targets are support levels 1.2667 and 1.2558. It is best to sell the pair from the upper area of the descending channel, where it is located right now. Take Profit in this case can range from 80 to 180 points. When the price settles above the channel, short positions will no longer be relevant.
Explanations for illustrations:
Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.
Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.
Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.
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