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EUR/USD – 1H.
On September 24, the EUR/USD pair began the process of growth towards the corrective level of 127.2% (1.1695). However, it did not reach a few points. Therefore, it performed a reversal in favor of the US currency and began the process of falling towards the corrective level of 161.8% (1.1608). Thus, despite the closing of quotes above the descending corridor, the mood of traders remains "bearish". Meanwhile, after the speeches of Jerome Powell and Steven Mnuchin in the US Congress, traders concluded this week that Democrats and Republicans will again sit down at the negotiating table and still sign an agreement that will provide an additional 1-2 trillion dollars for economic recovery. As Powell and Mnuchin unanimously stated, the economy needs this money to maintain the current pace of recovery. However, the US dollar has been showing fairly steady growth in recent days. Thus, it seems that the dollar does not really need help. Today, there was no important news in America and the European Union, however, the dollar continues to grow.
EUR/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the quotes of the EUR/USD pair were fixed under the side corridor, which allows traders to continue counting on a fall in the direction of the corrective level of 100.0% (1.1496). The pair's quotes broke out of the side corridor after two months of staying in it. There are no pending divergences in any indicator today, thus, only the level of 161.8% (1.1608) on the hourly chart can prevent bear traders.
EUR/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the quotes of the EUR/USD pair performed another reversal in favor of the US dollar, fixing under the corrective level of 261.8% (1.1825) and fixing under the blue rectangle that displayed the flat. Thus, now the chances of continuing the fall in the direction of the Fibo level of 200.0% (1.1566) have significantly increased.
EUR/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair has consolidated above the "narrowing triangle", which now allows us to count on further growth of the euro currency, which may be strong, but in the long term.
Overview of fundamentals:
On September 24, there was no news in the European Union, and new speeches by Jerome Powell and Steven Mnuchin took place in America, which did not particularly interest traders. Changes in the number of applications for unemployment benefits in the United States also became known. The number of primary applications increased by 870,000 and the number of secondary applications was 12.58 million, which is slightly lower than a week earlier.
News calendar for the United States and the European Union:
US - change in the volume of orders for durable goods (12:30 GMT).
On September 25, the calendar of economic events of the European Union again does not contain important reports and speeches. In America, there will be a fairly significant report on orders for long-term products.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The latest COT report was very interesting. During the reporting week, the "Non-commercial" group got rid of 17,000 long contracts and only 1,700 short ones. Thus, the mood of major speculators began to change to "bearish". The total number of long contracts focused on the hands of speculators is 231,000 against 52,000 short contracts. Thus, the advantage is still with the bulls, however, it is beginning to decrease. Over the past three weeks, the "Non-commercial" group has closed almost 30,000 long contracts, which significantly increases the probability of a fall in the European currency in the near future. However, the number of short contracts has also decreased in the last two months from 80,000 to 50,000. Thus, the euro may start the process of falling, however, it is unlikely to be strong.
Forecast for EUR/USD and recommendations for traders:
Today, I recommend selling the euro with a target of 1.1608 since it was closed under the side corridor on the 4-hour chart. I do not recommend buying a pair today.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy currency, not for speculative profit, but for current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
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