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Globally, the wave pattern of EUR/USD pair still looks quite convincing. According to it, the formation of the expected wave 4 as part of the upward trend section could already be completed. But the upward section of the trend can still take a longer, 5-wave form. This scenario requires only a strong news background for the EUR and a weak one for the USD.
In a smaller time frame, the wave pattern shows that there are three waves of a smaller order inside the supposed wave 4, while there are three more waves of an even smaller order inside the supposed wave b in 4. Thus, the entire wave 4 may already be completed. If this assumption is true, then the price can continue to rise from the current levels to goals located above the wave peaks 3 or C. How much higher will it go depends on the news background for this pair.
Last night, the first round of debate took place between Donald Trump and Joe Biden. Prior to this event, many expected the US President to win, considering his oratory skills. However, as practice has shown, his skills were not very useful. The six issues that both presidential candidates should have addressed were the most pressing ones for America and that is why they were not in favor of Donald Trump. In general, the debate was an hour and a half of mutual insults and accusations. However, the following polls showed that it was Biden who performed better in the debate – only 28% of respondents believe that the current President performed well. Moreover, 65% believe that Biden's answers were true, and only 29% believe that Trump did not lie in his statements. 69% of respondents also said Biden's attacks on Trump were fair. As we can see, public opinions are very important, since this is what debates are held for. Biden won the first round, but there will be two more rounds.
According to the current wave pattern, there is a very high probability of a new decline in dollar quotes. Thus, it is only necessary that the news background does not suddenly take the side of the US currency, which can lead to a problem of wave 4. Today, the US GDP report will be released, but it is unlikely to cause a strong market reaction. The fact is that this is already the third publication of this report in recent months. Thus, the markets simply do not expect other numbers than those already known.
A report from ADP on the change in the number of employees, which has a very optimistic forecast of $ 650 thousand will also be released today. However, we don't expect that it will be reached and so, the US currency will not receive market support today.
General conclusions and recommendations:
Since it is assumed that the euro/dollar pair has already completed the formation of a global wave 3 or C and wave 4, I recommend buying the pair with goals around the calculated level of 1.2012, which equates to 0.0% Fibonacci.
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