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Globally, a new downward trend section continues to be built. However, the quotes leaving the reached lows suggests that the entire trend section, which began on September 1, has taken on a three-wave form and is already completed. If this assumption is correct, then the quotes from the current positions may continue to rise within the structure of a new upward wave as part of the upward trend section, which began on March 19. In this case, it will take on an even more complex and extended form.
Yesterday, the GBP/USD pair only gained 20 pips and so, the quotes are approaching the peak of wave 2 or b. If this mark will be broken, it will be very likely to complete the formation of a downward wave. In this case, the wave structure from September 1 will take a three-wave form. However, It is difficult to say what will be the further wave pattern. But it is likely that the increase in the quotes will continue with targets located near the high of the expected wave Z. On the contrary, an unsuccessful attempt to break through the 50.0% Fibonacci level may lead to a downward trend and in this case, wave 3 or C will take a much more complex and extended form.
The last round of negotiations between London and Brussels also began yesterday. It should be noted that a few days ago, both parties announced once again that an agreement can still be reached. However, neither side has indicated what concessions it is willing to make to conclude this agreement. As a result, negotiations have begun, but there is still no result. Moreover, the negotiations are held at the highest level this time, and not between the groups of Michel Barnier and David Frost. Britain's chief negotiator said that unlike previous governments, London is taking a tough position in the negotiations. He said that he wants London's position in the EU to be respected and taken seriously. According to Frost, the UK does not want to be a dependent state and wants to fully control its legislative system on its own. In conclusion, London is not afraid to end Brexit without an agreement. Thus, the chances of signing the agreement are disappearing every day, and together with it is market's support to the pound.
General conclusions and recommendations:
The pound/dollar pair presumably continues to build a new downward trend section, since the supposed wave 2 or b has already completed its formation near the 38.2% level. Thus, selling the pair with targets located around 1.2721 and 1.2539, which equates to 61.8% and 76.4% Fibonacci is still recommended.
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