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Hourly chart of the EUR/USD pair
The EUR/USD pair began to correct last Monday night, as we expected. However, this correction is too weak at the moment. The MACD indicator has not yet had time to discharge to the zero level. Therefore, it will be extremely difficult for it to turn to the upside in order to form a new buy signal. Therefore, the best option would be to wait for another round of corrective movement and an additional discharge of the indicator. Meanwhile, the upward trend continues within the sideways channel, which is where the price has predominantly been trading in for three months now. There is no trendline or trend channel at this time. Therefore, it will be very difficult to identify when this upward trend will end. As for the prospects, buyers can count on strengthening the pair up to the 1.1900 level, we do not see the price going much higher just yet.
The fundamental background for the EUR/USD pair remains unchanged. To date, not a single important event is planned in the European Union and the United States, so traders simply have nothing to pay attention to. In such circumstances, we recommend continuing to track the overall fundamental background. Topics such as the coronavirus in Europe, the US elections, the agreement by Democrats and Republicans of a new stimulus package for the American economy. It is not certain whether these topics will have an immediate impact on the pair, but they create the background on which, in principle, trading is conducted. We also recommend monitoring the statements of US President Donald Trump, as they very well reduce his chances of reelection to a second term. In general, we monitor all interesting news, but in trading we rely primarily on technical factors and signals. As we have said more than once, it will be extremely difficult for the dollar to rise until November 3 (Election Day in the United States). The euro is not paying attention to the second wave of the pandemic in the EU and is quietly rising in price. Thus, it is difficult to even imagine what must happen in order for traders to be able to withdraw the pair from the existing horizontal channel.
Possible scenarios for October 20:
1) Buy positions on the EUR/USD pair are currently relevant, since the descending trend line has been crossed. Novice traders are advised to wait for a new round of downward correction, discharge of the MACD indicator and a new buy signal in order to open new long positions with targets at 1.1808 and 1.1846. It is not recommended to open new longs before this time, even if the price continues to move upward.
2) You are advised to go back to selling the currency pair, but first a downward trend must appear or the current upward trend should end. This scenario is impossible in the next few hours, therefore, we do not recommend considering short positions today.
On the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.
Up/down arrows show where you should sell or buy after reaching or breaking through particular levels.
The MACD indicator (14,22,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).
Important announcements and economic reports that you can always find in the news calendar can seriously influence the trajectory of a currency pair. Therefore, at the time of their release, we recommended trading as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal.
Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.
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