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05.11.202011:32 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Analysis of EUR/USD on November 5. Joe Biden continues to lead in the polls, but Donald Trump still has a chance to win

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Exchange Rates 05.11.2020 analysis

On the global scale, the wave marking of the EUR/USD instrument has undergone certain changes following the fall of the quotes below the minimum of wave b. Thus, the entire section of the trend that originates on September 23, now looks three-wave and completed. If this is true, then the decline in the instrument's quotes will resume with targets located around 15 figures and below. Perhaps another three-wave structure will be built down. During this week, the wave marking may become confused and require adjustments and additions.

Exchange Rates 05.11.2020 analysis

Wave marking on a smaller scale also indicates the possible completion of a new b wave, which is a corrective one consisting of at least three waves of the descending structure. However, it can also take a three-wave form. If the current wave marking is correct, the price decline will resume after the completion of the b wave with targets located around 15 and 13 figures. Adjustments and additions to the current markup due to overactive trading this week are necessary.

The US election is over, but the vote count continues, so there are no official results yet. The leader in the race continues to be Democrat Joe Biden, who currently has 264 votes—and to win, he needs 270. There are no (final) results for four more states. Since the total number of votes that any candidate can get if they win in all four states is 57, Donald Trump may still win the election with 271 votes. The most interesting thing is that according to preliminary estimates, Donald Trump is leading in three of the four non-closed states. In Georgia, his advantage is 0.4%, in Pennsylvania - 2.6%, in North Carolina - 1.4%. In Nevada, Joe Biden leads by a margin of 0.6%. If it stays that way, Joe Biden will win. But if Trump also manages to tip the scales in his favor in Nevada, then the Republican will win the election. Thus, nothing has been decided yet. Furthermore, there is no doubt that if Biden's advantage is minimal in the end (and this is the most likely option now), then Trump will try to challenge the results of the vote in one or more states. Even guessing does not make any sense on how this story will end. At the moment, we need to wait for the results for the remaining four states and only then make interim results. The euro/dollar instrument may continue to trade overly active in the coming days, as nothing will be decided yet in the event of a minimal Biden victory. Markets may continue to be nervous, which might lead to a serious complication of the current wave pattern.

General conclusions and recommendations:

The euro-dollar pair has presumably completed the construction of three-wave upward trend, as well as expected wave b. Therefore, it is still recommended to sell the instrument with targets placed near the mark 1,1519, which corresponds to 38.2% of Fibonacci on every MACD signal down based on the formation of downward wave C. However, the news can greatly affect the markets, which can lead to complication of the wave structure.

Eseguito da Chin Zhao
Esperto analista di InstaForex
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