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The market was rather calm yesterday, even amid the Federal Reserve's meeting, at which the central bank's monetary policy was left completely unchanged.
Interest rates remain between 0.00% to 0.25%, as have the existing asset purchase programs of the central bank. The meeting mainly focused on inflation in the United States, where it was decided that even if its value slightly exceeds the target 2.0%, an increase in rates is unlikely to happen.
The Fed also pointed to the fact that although the economy continues to recover, the level of activity remains lower than before the pandemic. The outlook of the economy depends on the development of the situation with the coronavirus, so the Fed will continue to adhere to the new leading indication regarding the timing of keeping low interest rates.
During his speech, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell also did not say anything new that could affect the markets. Instead, he reiterated that economic recovery has slowed down, thus, the path is covered with uncertainty. And since the recession that was observed during the first wave of the pandemic hit very unevenly, the Fed's policy will continue to remain soft until the targets for employment and inflation are achieved. Powell also said that the central bank will continue to buy assets at its current pace, but will likely need further monetary and fiscal support.
With regards to economic statistics, the latest data on jobless claims in the US were published yesterday, but it did not affect the market much. This is because the figures were not really different from the record last week.
The report from the US Department of Labor said the number of initial applications for the week of October 25 to 31 fell by only 7,000, amounting to 751,000. Despite the stubborn increase of coronavirus infections, the latest figure is the lowest level seen since March, and the data for the previous week was revised upward by 7,000 to 758,000.
As for the unemployment rate, a decline is expected for October this year. There will also be monthly data on the number of people employed in the non-agricultural sector, but no major changes are expected there either. In that regard, only a strong divergence in one direction will lead to a surge in market volatility.
And if long positions increase further in the European currency, the quote may reach the 19th and 20th figures. However, a strong bullish impulse may not emerge even amid Biden's victory, since there is still the possibility that his party will not be able to get a majority in the Congress and the Senate.
It is also another matter if Trump wins the election, because on that, the EUR / USD pair will collapse quite strongly, since everyone is betting on his loss.
From a technical point of view, a breakout from the resistance level of 1.1880 will lead to a strong upward move towards 1.1960 and 1.2050. But if Trump wins, the quote may breakout from 1.1760 and move down to the 16th figure.
AUD / USD
The Australian dollar continues to rebound strongly against the US dollar after the Reserve Bank of Australia announced that it would not consider further rate cuts. They said that interest rates are currently lowered as much as it makes sense, and little can be gained from the introduction of negative rates. Thus, the RBA believes that a policy of negative interest rates is extremely unlikely, and for an increase to happen, inflation has to reach the target level of 2-3%.
The technical picture of the AUD / USD pair indicates that in order to see a more steady rise towards price levels 0.7340 and 0.7400, the quote needs to break above 0.7160 and 0.7285. As for a bearish move towards 0.7130 and 0.7070, the quote has to fall below the level of 0.7205.
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