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Trading data shows that the price of oil is rising on Thursday morning. Experts explain the positive dynamics of the market amid the anticipation of the data on raw material reserves in the US and investors' belief that OPEC+ will take additional measures to support the market if necessary.
The price of December futures for the North Sea oil mix Brent rose by 0.18% and reached $43.88 per barrel. The price of January futures for a mixture of this brand on the LONDON ICE Futures exchange was $43.79 per barrel, which is $0.01 (0.02%) lower than the closing price of the previous session. On Wednesday, these contracts rose by $0.19 (0.4%).
The price of December futures for WTI crude oil increased by 0.24% and was fixed at $41.55 per barrel. On Wednesday, futures rose in price by $0.09 (0.2%).
Oil has risen more than 12% since the start of this week, mainly on news of the success of trials of the COVID-19 vaccine by the US Pharmaceutical company Pfizer Inc. and Germany's BioNTech.
However, in general, the situation in the oil market remains quite difficult, the reason for this is the decline in demand against the background of COVID-19, combined with an increase in supply. In this regard, market participants reacted with great enthusiasm to media reports that OPEC+ is discussing the possibility of delaying the increase in oil production for three to six months. The next meeting of representatives of the international organization is scheduled for the end of November.
Recall that the new OPEC + agreements started in May with a reduction in oil production by 9.7 million barrels per day for a period of three months. In August, the organization continued to reduce production, but in a smaller volume – by 7.7 million barrels per day for the period up to the end of the year. The plan is to reduce by 5.8 million barrels per day by the end of April 2022.
On Wednesday, Algerian Energy Minister Abdelmadjid Attar did not rule out the possibility of an additional reduction in oil production within OPEC, if it would be in the interests of the market. Apparently, the black gold market is looking forward to 2021. On the one hand, next year promises the world to establish effective production of coronavirus vaccines, on the other – the postponement of some of the planned OPEC+ measures to increase oil production.
The focus of the black gold market is on the release of the data on energy reserves in the US, which will be announced by the US Department of Energy on the evening of November 12.
Experts expect that the decrease in oil reserves in America last week averaged 3 million barrels, gasoline by 600,000 barrels, and distillates by 2 million barrels.
Meanwhile, the long-term outlook for energy demand remains rather dim due to the uncontrolled growth of COVID-19 cases in both Europe and the US. In many countries, strict restrictive measures are being introduced.
In the short term, experts predict an increase in oil prices. Many analysts believe that the vaccine will not affect demand until it is widely used. At the same time, the improvement in the mood of market participants will help oil prices to stay at the achieved levels.
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