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Nothing has changed in the primary impulses that drive financial markets last week. This continued confidence among investors is caused by different factors – Mr. Biden's victory in the US presidential elections, effective vaccines against COVID-19, Fed's convincing statement that the US regulator will continue to pursue easing the monetary policy, and rising expectations that the US will receive new assistance measures from the government. Of course, it was not without the same massive negativity due to the pandemic and is characterized only by growing cases and deaths from this infection and factors of quarantine measures.
Therefore, there is a continuing fair optimism in financial markets in general. Investors clearly want to buy risky assets, reasonably believing that there is no better moment, since shares of companies in the industrial sector and a number of other sectors of the economy, which were previously under severe pressure in the context of the pandemic, remain cheap and its price will definitely continue to grow as normal economic activity recovers, which will follow a decline in the impact of the pandemic.
The US dollar remains under pressure in the currency market. The main reason is still the low demand for protective assets amid growing demand for risky assets. An additional negative factor is the rising expectations of new financial aid from American authorities, which is expected to provide a huge amount of more than $ 1 trillion. This was promised even before the presidential election.
The euro, in turn, remains in a wider range of 1.1615. Recently, it is in its narrow part 1.1815-1.1890. This behavior of the pair can be explained by two things – growing weakness of the US dollar and by the lack of serious forces for the growth of the single currency itself.
Meanwhile, the pound rose last week amid revived hopes for Brexit negotiations, which actually stimulated its growth. Commodity currencies also received support on a general positive wave. The Australian and New Zealand dollars were especially distinguished, growing on the wave of the conclusion of a new large-scale trade agreement by Asian countries. The Japanese yen and franc also received support in the wake of volatile trading.
Analyzing the market situation, it can be described as moderately positive for the demand for risky assets and moderately negative for the US dollar. The overall picture is likely to continue this week.
Forecast of the day:
The EUR/USD pair is trading in the range of 1.1815-1.1890. If it breaks the upper limit of the range, the pair will further rise to 1.1965.
The GBP/USD is trading above the level of 1.3310. If it holds above it, it will surge to 1.3400.
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