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1-hour chart of EUR/USD
On Thursday, EUR/USD has reversed downwards a few times, trying to develop a steady bearish trend. Nevertheless, the MACD indicator failed to ebb away to zero. So, sell signals which have been formed during the trading day were weak, so they should not have been used for trading. Anyway, everything is for the better because EUR/USD was moving like a seesaw with sharp gyrations. The pair was able to hit lower lows of 2021 and maintained the overall downtrend. The price has been trapped inside a downward channel. Thus, the best idea for beginners is to wait until a strong sell signal appears in the chart. I insist that it is better to refrain from opening positions than to incur losses. Caution is highly recommended now when fundamental background and macroeconomic data are still neglected by the market. Let me warn you that EUR/USD could resume an upward move anytime because market participants are still poised to be bearish about the US dollar.
On Thursday, January 14, the US Labor Department reported on initial unemployment claims. The number of first-time jobless claims increased more than expected last week that is bad for the US economy. Interestingly, the number of unemployment claims contracted for a few weeks in a row, but the US dollar extended weakness. I mean that EUR/USD's climb in the second half of the trading day is not related to a weekly update on initial jobless claims. Other news was of secondary importance to market participants. Jerome Powell did not say anything extraordinary like Christine Lagarde did earlier this week. Besides, political news makes a minor impact on Forex. The news on Donald Trump's impeachment did not explode like a bombshell.
On Friday, January 15, the US is due to report some economic data. I guess the market will also take little notice of them as it happens recently. Anyway, investors will get to know data on industrial production which is not so vulnerable amid the pandemic-driven crisis. Another report is about retail sales. Retail sales are expected to inch down in December. Industrial production could show an uptick last month. In other words, these minor changes are likely to be ignored by the market. Hence, traders will give priority to technical analysis.
The following scenarios are possible on January 15
1)Long positions are still out of the question nowadays as EUR/USD is set to follow the downtrend. Those who want to buy the currency pair should wait until the price fixes above the downward channel. In this case, it will be possible to consider long positions with upward targets at resistance levels of 1.2206 and 1.2256.
2)Now it makes sense to trade the pair downwards. So, it would be better to wait until a new clear-cut sell signal appears. It is recommended to open new short positions with targets at support levels of 1.2123 and 1.2090 (they will be revised in the morning) on condition that MACD generates a new sell signal, but previously the MACD indicator should drop to zero. Another sell signal should be viewed as a bounce off the upper border of the new downward channel.
What's on the chart:
Support and Resistance levels are the levels that are targets when opening buy or sell orders. Take Profit levels can be placed near them.
Red lines are channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show which direction it is preferable to trade now.
Up / down arrows show whether the pair should be traded up or down when reaching or overcoming particular obstacles.
MACD indicator (10,20,3) - a histogram and a signal line. When they are crossed, this signals a market entry. It is recommended for use in combination with trend lines (channels, trend lines).
Important speeches and reports in the economic calendar can greatly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement.
Beginners in the forex market should remember that every trade cannot be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.
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