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1-hour chart of EUR/USD.
On Monday, EUR/USD began a new round of a downward correction as we had projected in the previous review. All in all, the currency pair sank 66 pips. Then, it revealed some sings of a further climb. There were no market catalysts on Monday which could change trading sentiment. So, we have no reasons to assume that EUR/USD will reverse a trend downwards. Thus, I'm poised to think that the price will reverse upwards from the current levels. Another option is that the price will rebound from the lower border of the upward channel. The overall trend on EUR/USD remains bullish. Therefore, it is recommended to trade the pair upwards.
On Monday, the pair has generated two buy signals which were recommended for consideration by beginners. One of them was a weak signal. While being formed, MACD failed to discharge in full. It is pointed by the first circle in the chart. The second strong signal is due to form in the nearest hour. Thus, beginners will be able to open a trade in the nearest hour. It would be difficult to monitor this deal late at night, but that's how the market works.
On Monday, January 25, the only important event was a speech by Christine Lagarde. She said nothing either about monetary policy or about economics. Hence, we can reckon that the economy calendar was empty on Monday. Anyway, the market gives a muted response to fundamental events. To sum up, the economic calendar lacked events and traders took little interest in any events. EUR/USD has been trading on the grounds of technical mechanisms.
On Tuesday, January 26, the trading day will be similar. No crucial and interesting events are slated for this date. So, novice traders again will not be distracted by fundamental factors but focus entirely on technical charts. The currency pair will be trading quietly tomorrow.
The following scenarios are possible on January 26
1)Long positions are still valid as the price remains inside the upward channel. However, beginners are recommended to wait until a new buy signal is formed by MACD. When the signal is evident, it would be a good idea to trade EUR/USD upwards with targets coinciding with resistance levels of 1.2171 and 1.2190.
2)Trading the pair downwards is out of the question for a while. To resume sell positions, the uptrend should be eventually cancelled. To make sure it happens, the upward channel should be ruined. In other words, the price should fix below it. As the price is passing not far away from its lower border at the moment, this scenario is possible in the nearest 10-12 hours. If this is the case, it would be the right time to open short positions. However, it would be better to wait until morning and re-evaluate the situation.
What's on the chart:
Support and Resistance levels are the levels that are targets when opening buy or sell orders. Take Profit levels can be placed near them.
Red lines are channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show which direction it is preferable to trade now.
Up / down arrows show whether the pair should be traded up or down when reaching or overcoming particular obstacles.
MACD indicator (14,22,3) is a histogram and a signal line. When they are crossed, this signals a market entry. It is recommended for use in combination with trend lines (channels, trend lines).
Important speeches and reports in the economic calendar can greatly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement.
Beginners in the forex market should remember that every trade cannot be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.
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