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The wave counting of the upward trend section still has a fully completed five-wave form. Thus, the current wave pattern suggests the construction of a new downward trend. If the current assumption is correct, then the decline in quotes will continue with targets located around 19 and 18 figures. So far, there are no prerequisites for resuming the construction of the upward trend section
The wave count of a smaller scale also indicates the completion of building the upward trend channel. The estimated wave 5-5 has become quite complete, and the successful attempt to break through the low of the supposed wave 4 indicates that the instrument is ready to build a minimum of a three-wave downward trend section. The first wave of the new trend section has acquired a 5-wave form, the second a 3-wave one. Thus, we can now expect a new fall of the instrument within the framework of the proposed third wave.
It cannot be said that little information is currently being received on the foreign exchange market. Markets regularly receive interesting messages, but most of them continue to not be perceived by them. And quite rightly so. For example, at the beginning of 2021, Christine Lagarde spoke several times already, she tried to be optimistic but did not manage to do it for long. A change of president has taken place in the United States. Vaccination has begun in many European countries. In general, there was important news. One of this news is the impeachment procedure launched in Congress by Donald Trump, who has already left office. The Democratic Party has initiated this procedure and has already referred it to the Senate. However, the Senate is unlikely to vote to remove Trump from a position he no longer holds. Even the current President of the United States, Joe Biden, does not believe that the senators will vote to impeach. Let me remind you that to remove Trump, 67 votes out of 100 are required in the Senate.
At the same time, the President of the ECB delivered a speech at the international forum in Davos that dealt with the difficult period of the EU economy and its very difficult recovery after the coronavirus pandemic. Lagarde noted once again that the start of vaccination is certainly positive news, but it is too early to conclude the results of this procedure. The economy may grow minimally in the first quarter by less than 1% compared to the fourth quarter, in which a decline will be recorded at all. Moreover, according to reports, the business activity in the services sector of the eurozone continues to decline. Thus, it is not even possible to conclude that the situation with business activity is improving. Of course, the coronavirus and the ongoing quarantines in many European countries are to blame. Also, recently, there are growing reports about new strains of coronavirus and that some of them may be more contagious, and some already created vaccines do not work against them.
General conclusions and recommendations:
The EUR/USD pair has supposedly completed the construction of the upward trend. Thus, at this time, I recommend selling the instrument with targets located around 20 and 19 figures for each new signal of the MACD indicator "down", counting on the formation of wave 3.
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