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The US GDP data released on Thursday was generally in line with forecasts, as it is usually clear what to expect from the publication after the ISM reports are released. The report on the labor market should also be considered generally positive. The number of initial applications for unemployment benefits decreased from 914,00 to 847,000, which at the same time turned out to be better than forecasts. Also, we must not forget that the current figures still significantly exceed the maximum of 695,000, which was recorded before the COVID-19 pandemic for the entire period of research since 1967.
In general, today the demand for protective assets prevails, European stock indexes are trading in the red zone, April gold futures are growing by 1.5%, which in general can be considered as a continuation of the trend of flight from risk. Also, the EU presumably intends to approve the use of the AstraZeneca vaccine, which will be announced at a virtual press briefing at 21:00 EST. This event is likely to return the markets to growth.
The data on personal spending and income in December in the US is also expected today. The forecasts are neutral, but the release is important because it can provide arguments to the Biden cabinet for more aggressive assistance to the economy.
EUR/USD
Most of the indicators published on Thursday by the European Commission showed no significant changes in either investor sentiment or consumer sentiment. The level of consumer confidence remained low in January, at -15.5%, there was a minimal increase in optimism in the industry, from -6.8% to -5.9%, the index of sentiment in the economy as a whole slightly decreased from 92.4p to 91.5p, which is slightly better than forecasts.
More specifically, no new factors that could indicate the direction of the euro were found. Everything that was said at the end of the ECB meeting a week earlier is also suitable for today - the nearest economic prospects are uncertain and directly depend on the rate of vaccination.
The euro remains under pressure, with the main direction downward. A short-term upward correction may end in the 1.2050/70 zone or slightly below, after which the euro sales will resume. The immediate target is to refresh the minimum 1.2954, if successful, the long-term target will move further down to the 1.1900/30 zone.
GBP/USD
The report on the labor market for 3 months showed steady recovery dynamics, however, not all indicators have reached the level of early 2020. Over the year, the number of employees decreased by 828,000, the unemployment rate is still high.
At the same time, the number of hours worked is growing, and the average wage growth rate reached 3.6%, actually returning to the level of 10-year highs. It can be assumed that the Bank of England is optimistic about this indicator as the main factor of sustained inflation growth.
The next meeting of the Bank of England will be held on February 4, forecasts unanimously insist on the unchanged exchange rate, the interest rate will remain unchanged, as well as the volume of the asset repurchase program. Accordingly, the upcoming meeting will not have a significant impact on the pound quotes, and the decrease in concerns about the Bank of England's intention to cut the rate again has already played a positive role for the pound.
The mutation of the coronavirus has not yet led to serious problems in the economy. Yes, some restrictive measures have been stepped up in response, but most vaccine manufacturers have reported that their drugs are also effective against the new mutation.
The pound still has a chance of continuing to grow. An attempt to get to 1.40 is very likely to take place, so it seems logical to keep long positions until the appearance of reversal signals. A fundamental reversal has not yet occurred.
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