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The wave counting on the 4-hour chart is still quite unambiguous. I have said more than once in recent months that I expect the instrument to move in three wave structures, which on the higher chart will transform into a-b-c-d-e structure. At the moment, this forecast is being fulfilled by 100%. The instrument quotes fell to the 76.4% Fibonacci level, and two attempts to break this mark were unsuccessful. Thus, a further decline in quotes is questionable because of this moment. I also like to draw your attention to the fact that the instrument has already built the next three waves down, thus, the supposed wave e may already be completed. If this is the case, then the increase in quotes may begin already from the current levels and this will be the beginning of the construction of a new upward trend section. At the same time, in case of a successful attempt to break through the 76.4% Fibonacci level, the assumed wave from c to e may both lengthen and the entire downward trend section, which originates in January 2021, may become more complicated.
Last Friday and today, the news background for the instrument was very weak. There was not a single piece of news in the European Union that deserved the attention of the markets. In America, reports on American personal income and personal spending were released on Friday. The first indicator fell by 7.1% in February, the second - by 1%. Also, the balance of trade in goods in February was again in deficit. However, this has already become a habit for the United States. Another thing of importance is the continued growth of the trade deficit in goods, which, in other words, means an increase in the gap between imports and exports. The news from the US on Friday was disappointing, but the demand for the US dollar remained quite confident. In other words, there was no departure of quotes from the reached lows. If so, then the markets simply did not pay attention to these reports. In general, the picture clearly shows that the market activity today and on Friday is extremely low. A downward set of waves, according to all the canons of wave analysis, is nearing completion and now it only remains to understand whether the markets are ready to complicate the current set of waves or will a new upward trend section begin to be built? I believe that it is wave analysis that now makes it possible to clearly understand what is happening in the market. As for the news background, as I said, there was no news at all today. If we pay attention to more global topics, then all of them did not affect the current downward trend in any way.
Based on the analysis, I would recommend looking closely at buying the instrument now. There is no sense in highlighting the targets yet since it is not yet clear whether the upward trend section will begin to build. But around 1.1776, which equates to 76.4% Fibonacci and may be the minimum of the entire descending segment. Thus, I recommend buying before a successful breakout of 1.1776.
The wave counting of the upward trend section is still quite complete, in a five-wave form, and is not going to get complicated yet. But the section of the trend, which began its construction immediately after it, takes on a corrective, but quite understandable form. Supposed wave d turned out to be shortened, therefore now the construction of the supposed wave e continues.
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