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The wave picture for the Pound/Dollar instrument looks more convincing after making adjustments. At this time, waves 1 and 2 of the new downward trend are clearly visible. They can also be waves a and b of the corrective part of the trend, but for now, I consider them still as part of the new impulse section of the trend. The assumed wave 3 takes on a more pronounced five-wave form, which it should be. Inside this wave, waves 1 and 2 are already traced, so I expect the instrument quotes to continue to decline with targets located around the 34th and 35th figures. At the moment, there is no reason to believe that the current wave pattern is not correct and requires some additions. Even the absolute discrepancy of expectations with the Euro/Dollar instrument is not surprising. Let me remind you that the construction of a new upward trend section is expected for the euro in the near future.
The news background for the Pound/Dollar instrument on Monday and Tuesday was not just weak, there was nothing at all. There was no news in the UK, while there was only one report on consumer confidence in the US. It is unlikely that this caused new purchases of the US dollar. However, it showed by its significance that the American population has a high opinion of the current rates of economic recovery and expects them to accelerate in the coming months. The value in March increased from 90.4 to 109.7. I would also like to note the renewed growth in the yield of 10-year Treasuries in the US. It is with the growth of this indicator that many analysts linked the increase in the dollar quotes in the last month. Rising Treasury yields, simply put, means that investors believe in strong inflation going forward. The Fed is counting on the acceleration of inflation above 2%.
Thus, high expectations of high inflation are forcing the markets to expect that the quantitative stimulus program will also be phased out as soon as inflation consolidates above the 2% mark. In general, the markets are absolutely optimistic about the dollar. Tomorrow, an interesting report on UK's GDP for the fourth quarter will be released. Its value, according to market expectations, will not change at 1.0% QoQ. If it really does not change, then the markets will not pay any attention to this report. In the US, the ADP jobs report is expected, which in recent months has always been ignored by the markets. However, this time the markets are waiting for an increase in the number of employees by 500,000, which may cause a strong increase in demand for the dollar in pair with the euro and the pound.
And at this time, I still expect the formation of a downward wave of 3 or c. Thus, I recommend continuing to sell the instrument for each new MACD signal "down" with targets located around the 35th figure. So far, there are no grounds for making changes to the current wave counting.
The part of the trend, originating on September 23, has taken on a five-wave fully completed form. Thus, this section of the trend is presumably completed, and the decline in quotes may resume as part of the construction of a new downward section of the trend, the first two waves of which have already completed their construction. Despite some ambiguity in the internal counting of the upward trend, the main thing now is the credibility of the counting of the new downward trend.
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