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To open long positions on EURUSD, you need to:
In the first half of the day, I paid attention to the level of 1.1884 and recommended actions based on it. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and analyze the entry points. The breakdown of 1.1884 occurred without a reverse test, which did not allow entering the market in short positions at the very beginning of the movement. A little later, when the test of the level of 1.1884 from the bottom up took place - it was impossible to sell the euro. The reason is that the 5-minute candle closed above this range and we did not return under it again. Then there was a sharp increase in the resistance area of 1.1909, however, we fell just a couple of points short of it, after which a downward correction began. When you re-return to this level, there was a breakdown, so there could be no question of any sale on the rebound.
In the second half of the day, given the rebuff buyers give sellers, the picture changed slightly. I revised the resistance, and removed it, drawing new support in the area of 1.1901. Its protection will be the initial task of buyers for the second half of the day. Only the formation of a false breakout there will form a good signal to open long positions in the continuation of the growth of the euro in the area of the maximum of 1.1942, where I recommend taking the profits. A more distant target will be the area of 1.1987. Given the lack of important fundamental statistics in the second half of the day, the bulls may miss the initiative, which will lead to a return of EUR/USD under the level of 1.1901. In this case, I recommend postponing long positions until the test of the lower border of the side channel 1.1868, from where you can buy the euro immediately on the rebound in the expectation of an upward correction of 15-20 points within the day.
To open short positions on EURUSD, you need to:
Excellent retail sales data for February 2021 in the euro area surprised many investors, which did not allow the bears to break under the lower limit of the side channel. At the moment, the bulls have taken over the initiative, so the initial task of the sellers now is to regain control over the level of 1.1901. Only a test of it from the bottom up forms an excellent entry point into short positions to reduce EUR/USD to the support area of 1.1868, where I recommend fixing the profits. A break in this range will also lead to a powerful sell-off in the area of 1.1828, but for this, there should be good fundamental statistics for the United States, the release of which is not scheduled today. In the scenario of further growth of the pair, I recommend postponing short positions until the resistance test of 1.1942, from which you can sell the euro immediately for a rebound in the expectation of a downward correction of 15-20 points within the day.
Let me remind you that in the COT report (Commitment of Traders) for March 30, the indicators of long and short positions have undergone several changes – short positions have grown especially strongly, which indicates that the market remains under the control of the euro sellers. The delta drop was caused by a slight decline in long positions and a sharp increase in short positions. European countries continue to close for quarantine this spring due to a new strain of coronavirus and a weak vaccination program that was conducted in the winter. This is causing serious damage to the economy and there is already talk among experts that the eurozone's GDP may shrink in the 2nd quarter. Bureaucratic delays in the implementation of the EU recovery fund are another reason for the weak growth of the eurozone economy during the COVID-19 pandemic this year. For this reason, in the medium term, the market remains on the side of sellers of risky assets, which may lead to further formation of a downward trend. Investors expect the United States to be the first to start raising interest rates, which makes the dollar more attractive. Only after the lifting of restrictions and the recovery of the services sector in the euro area can we expect an improvement in the economic outlook, which will return the trend to the strengthening of the EUR/USD. The COT report shows that long non-profit positions declined to the level of 194,764 from the level of 195,500 s, while short non-profit positions rose from the level of 102,178 to the level of 121,024. As a result, the total non-profit net position again continued its decline and amounted to 73,739 against the level of 93,332 a week earlier. The weekly closing price also fell to 1.1768 against 1.1932 a week earlier.
Signals of indicators:
Moving averages
Trading is conducted in the area of 30 and 50 daily moving averages, which indicates the uncertainty of the pair with the further direction.
Note: The period and prices of the moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.
Bollinger Bands
A break of the upper limit of the indicator in the area of 1.1905 will lead to a new wave of growth of the euro.
Description of indicators
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