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GBP/USD 5M
The GBP/USD pair traded in the same flat as the EUR/USD pair on Thursday, April 15. In principle, neither macroeconomic statistics nor global fundamental factors could move the pair off the ground. The only difference is that the volatility for the euro was around 40 points, and for the pound - about 50, which, in principle, is the same. Thus, we can draw the same conclusions as for the euro. It was very difficult to trade the pair and it was best not to enter the market at all. Those who would have realized in time that the pair would be in a flat, would have saved a lot of nerves. However, several signals were generated during the day, and traders had every right to work them out. Let's try to figure out which positions should have been opened and which shouldn't. Immediately at the beginning of the European trading session, the pair formed the first buy signal in the form of overcoming the extremum level of 1.3773. After its formation, in just a few hours, the price went up by about 25 points, which was enough to set the Stop Loss level to breakeven. A little later, the quotes returned to the 1.3773 level and bounced off it again. There was a very delicate moment here, since the quote initially settled below the 1.3773 level, and quite confidently, therefore, a sell signal was formed, which should have been worked out as well. Unfortunately, it turned out to be false and as soon as the price went back to the area above 1.3773 it should have been closed, which brought a loss of 14 points. Theoretically, it was also necessary to open a new buy signal at this point. In any case, after a new buy signal was formed, the pair again went up by around 25 points, which was enough to set Stop Loss to breakeven, at which this deal was closed a little later. Thus, losses on two long positions were avoided. The price has never reached the Senkou Span B line, as it fell short by 5 points each time. Those who took profits on the approach to this line have good intuition. The next two bounces from the 1.3773 level should not have been worked out for sure, since before that, at least three false signals had already formed near the level. Also, several reports were published in America during the day, which are indicated by numbers in the chart, but, as we see, there were no serious movements after them.
GBP/USD 1H
Everything is visible and comprehensible on the hourly timeframe. The pound/dollar pair spent the second day near the 1.3807 level and the Senkou Span B line (1.3794). Traders have not yet decided which direction to trade the pair, so it is flat. Therefore, in general, the current situation is not the most favorable. If there are signs of a flat, then it is possible for you to not enter the market at all. Moreover, the UK and the US will not publish important macroeconomic reports today. So when there is no clear trend, it is even more important to trade from levels and lines. Signals will be generated when the pair rebounds from them and surpasses them. The most important levels for today are 1.3724 and 1.3807. Senkou Span B (1.3794) and Kijun-sen (1.3738) lines are also important, and signals can also form around them. As before, you are advised to set the Stop Loss level at breakeven when the price passes 20 points in the right direction. The nearest level/line is always used as targets (exceptions - if the target is too close to the signal).
We also recommend that you familiarize yourself with the forecast and trading signals for the EUR/USD pair.
COT report
The GBP/USD pair rose by 140 points during the last reporting week (March 30 - April 5). By the way, the charts shows how strong the downward correction has been in the last month and a half! And the entire upward trend doesn't even fit into the chart! The recent Commitment of Traders (COT) reports indicated that the sentiment of the non-commercial group of traders was becoming moderately more bearish. The second indicator shows a systematic decline in the net position of non-commercial traders. The green and red lines of the first indicator have been moving towards each other in recent weeks. However, we continue to pay attention to the fact that the green and red lines would change the direction of movement every couple of weeks before, which indicates that the most important groups of traders did not have a single trading strategy. But at the same time, the pound continued to grow. It turns out that the data from the COT reports simply did not coincide with what is happening in the currency market for the pound/dollar pair. Big players did not build up long or short positions, but the pound was still growing. From our point of view, the inflation factor of the money supply in the United States worked. The dollar was simply getting bigger. Therefore, the dollar's exchange rate fell, and large players could trade as they wanted, they simply did not exert the same strong influence on the pair's exchange rate as the US authorities, which poured trillions of dollars into the economy. We believe that we can see something similar this year, as the United States continues to saturate the economy with liquidity, and soon Americans could become more active, starting to get the money accumulated during the pandemic from under their pillows. Thus, the COT report for the pound does not allow any long-term conclusions to be drawn.
Explanations for the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.
Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.
Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.
Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.
Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the "non-commercial" group.
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